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Richards Bay v Mamelodi Sundowns

Richards Bay

1–4Full time

Mamelodi Sundowns

Premier Soccer League · TUE 13 OCT · Richards Bay Stadium (Umhlathuze)

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:11

Richards Bay 1–4 Mamelodi Sundowns MAMELODI SUNDOWNS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mamelodi Sundowns win~~64%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mamelodi Sundowns win at 64%.
0′Much as we predicted: Mamelodi Sundowns was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 13–22–65
1′KICK-OFF Richards Bay v Mamelodi Sundowns
11′A goal for Richards Bay on 12′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 14–24–62
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns
18′A goal for Mamelodi Sundowns on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–11–86
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Richards Bay 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Mamelodi Sundowns win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
19′We published Mamelodi Sundowns at 64%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 3–11–86
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Richards Bay 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns · Tashreeq Matthews
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Mamelodi Sundowns win: 64% at kick-off, 59% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Richards Bay 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns · Lwandile Sandile Mabuya
25′22′ and it is 1–1: Lwandile Sandile Mabuya on the scoresheet for Richards Bay. 1–1 · 14–29–58
25′7.0 shots for Mamelodi Sundowns, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 14–29–58
30′Mamelodi Sundowns have had 8.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 14–30–56
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Mamelodi Sundowns win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
36′Mamelodi Sundowns ahead on 37′ through Iqraam Rayners. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–11–86
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Richards Bay 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns · Lwandile Sandile Mabuya
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' Richards Bay 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns · Iqraam Rayners
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Mamelodi Sundowns win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
37′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–11–86
45′SECOND HALF Richards Bay 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns
48′We published Mamelodi Sundowns at 64%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
48′SECOND HALF Richards Bay 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Richards Bay 1–3 Mamelodi Sundowns · Iqraam Rayners
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Mamelodi Sundowns win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
49′SECOND HALF Richards Bay 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Richards Bay 1–3 Mamelodi Sundowns · Iqraam Rayners
50′Iqraam Rayners scores for Mamelodi Sundowns on 49′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
50′Iqraam Rayners scores for Mamelodi Sundowns on 48′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
51′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
58′We published Mamelodi Sundowns at 64%. Our model now makes it 100%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Richards Bay 1–4 Mamelodi Sundowns · Iqraam Rayners
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Richards Bay 1–4 Mamelodi Sundowns · Fawaaz basadien
60′59′ and it is 1–4: Fawaaz basadien on the scoresheet for Mamelodi Sundowns. 1–4 · 0–0–100
61′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: Themba Zwane · Off: S. Mthanti
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: Thabo Cele · Off: Teboho Mokoena
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: Antonio Van Wyk · Off: Tashreeq Matthews
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: Nuno Santos · Off: Cassius Mailula
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Richards Bay · On: Lundi Mahala · Off: Nqaba Xulu
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Richards Bay · On: Wandile Ngidi · Off: Luyanda Khumalo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Richards Bay · On: Wandile Ngema · Off: S. Nzama
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Fawaaz basadien · Mamelodi Sundowns
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: Mothobi Mvala · Off: Malibongwe Prince Khoza
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Richards Bay · On: Olwethu Mbambo · Off: M. Mthembu
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Richards Bay · On: Sbani Khumalo · Off: S. Gwele
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Mamelodi Sundowns win: 64% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Richards Bay 1–4 Mamelodi Sundowns
FTRichards Bay 1–4 Mamelodi Sundowns · Mamelodi Sundowns win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

Richards Bay win13%

Draw24%

Mamelodi Sundowns win64%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:30

VenueRichards Bay Stadium (Umhlathuze)

Line-ups

Richards Bay

Mamelodi Sundowns

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Richards Bay

Mamelodi Sundowns

24Days since last match31

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	+12	20
14	Richards Bay	7	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Richards Bay

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Otieno

22 L. Mabuya

25 S. Mcineka

49 N. Mkhabela

37 S. Gwele

77 L. Khumalo

24 S. Gumede

12 S. Gumbi

20 M. Mthembu

27 N. Xulu

19 S. Nzama

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · N. Ngcobo

3 · S. Mntungwa

5 · T. Sikhakhane

35 · T. Ndelu

6 · K. Mncube

31 · O. Mbambo

33 · W. Ngema

14 · L. Mahala

26 · W. Ngidi

Mamelodi Sundowns

4-1-4-1

30 R. Williams

22 T. Matuludi

42 M. Khoza

3 K. Ndamane

23 F. Basadien

4 T. Mokoena

38 S. Ndlovu

33 C. Mailula

11 M. Allende

17 T. Matthews

13 I. Rayners

Coach · Miguel Cardoso

Substitutes

31 · R. Goss

40 · M. Mvala

27 · T. Morena

5 · D. Lunga

18 · T. Zwane

10 · N. Santos

19 · T. Cele

12 · B. Leon

29 · A. van Wyk

Our number · mamelodi sundowns winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

64% The market70%

Us64%

~~Market~~70%

We make Mamelodi Sundowns a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mamelodi sundowns win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Richards Bay win	13%	10%	+3
Draw	24%	20%	+3
Mamelodi Sundowns win	64%	70%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	43%	41%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Richards Bay or draw	36%	30%	+6
Richards Bay clean sheet	16%	–	–
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.0 13.6 13.3 8.2 3.9 1 4.7 10.9 9.0 5.6 2.6 2 3.5 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Richards Bay down, Mamelodi Sundowns across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,268 Premier Soccer League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Richards Bay at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mamelodi Sundowns away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Richards Bay, 1.85 for Mamelodi Sundowns. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RIC 0–0 MAM · MAM 4–1 RIC · MAM 3–0 RIC · RIC 0–2 MAM

Form · last six in Premier Soccer League

RICHARDS BAY

DDDLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 2–3

MAMELODI SUNDOWNS

WWWWWD2–0 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	+12	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	+15	19
3	Amazulu	7	+3	16
4	Kaizer Chiefs	7	+5	13
5	Milford FC	8	+2	12
6	Sekhukhune United	7	0	11
7	Stellenbosch	7	+1	9
8	Golden Arrows	7	0	8
9	Chippa United	7	−2	8
10	Durban City	7	−1	7
11	Polokwane City	7	−2	7
12	TS Galaxy	7	−2	6
13	Kruger United	7	−9	4
14	Richards Bay	7	−7	3
15	Siwelele	7	−7	3
16	Marumo Gallants	7	−8	2