Orlando Pirates v TS Galaxy prediction · Premier Soccer League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:11

Orlando Pirates 3–0 TS Galaxy ORLANDO PIRATES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orlando Pirates win~~70%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.144

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orlando Pirates win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orlando Pirates was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–19–10
1′KICK-OFF Orlando Pirates v TS Galaxy
17′Orlando Pirates ahead on 18′ through Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopane. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–2
17′We published Orlando Pirates at 70%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–2
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS Galaxy
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS Galaxy
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Orlando Pirates win: 70% at kick-off, 89% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Ghampani Lungu · Orlando Pirates
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Mpho Mvelase · TS Galaxy
45′Tshepang Moremi scores for Orlando Pirates on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–1
45′SECOND HALF Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS Galaxy
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' TS Galaxy · On: Seluleko Mahlambi · Off: Siyanda Xulu
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Orlando Pirates · On: Tshepang Moremi · Off: Ghampani Lungu
45′⚽ GOAL · 50' Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS Galaxy · Tshepang Moremi (assist B Sigomoshe)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Orlando Pirates · On: Mthetheleli Sibansezwe Mthiyane · Off: B Sigomoshe
45′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Orlando Pirates · On: Kabelo Kgosietsile · Off: Oswin Appollis
45′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Mlondi Mncwango · TS Galaxy
45′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Orlando Pirates · On: Evidence Makgopa · Off: Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopane
45′🟨 YELLOW · 66' T. Kakora · TS Galaxy
46′HALF-TIME Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS Galaxy
70′We published Orlando Pirates at 70%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Orlando Pirates 2–0 TS Galaxy · Tshepang Moremi
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Orlando Pirates win: 70% at kick-off, 99% now
71′We published Orlando Pirates at 70%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' TS Galaxy · On: Thulani Zandamela · Off: S. George
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Orlando Pirates win: 70% at kick-off, 100% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' thapelo mokobodi · Orlando Pirates
77′76′ and it is 3–0: Simphiwe Masilela on the scoresheet for Orlando Pirates. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Orlando Pirates 3–0 TS Galaxy · Simphiwe Masilela
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' TS Galaxy · On: Anslin Williams · Off: Junior Zindoga
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' TS Galaxy · On: Makhama Rantoa · Off: Mpho Mvelase
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Orlando Pirates · On: Sbangani Zulu · Off: Nkosinathi Sibisi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Simphiwe Masilela · Orlando Pirates
FTFULL TIME Orlando Pirates 3–0 TS Galaxy
FTOrlando Pirates 3–0 TS Galaxy · Orlando Pirates win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

Orlando Pirates win70%

Draw21%

TS Galaxy win9%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:30

VenueEllis Park

Line-ups

Orlando Pirates

4-2-3-1

TS Galaxy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Orlando Pirates

TS Galaxy

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Orlando Pirates	7	+15	19
12	TS Galaxy	7	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orlando Pirates

4-2-3-1

24 S. Chaine

2 B. Sigomoshe

6 L. Seema

5 N. Sibisi

3 N. Ndaba

20 S. Selepe

33 T. Mokobodi

23 G. Lungu

48 S. Masilela

12 O. Appollis

25 B. Radiopane

Coach · Abdeslam Ouaddou

Substitutes

32 · S. Dladla

19 · N. Rapoo

37 · S. Zulu

46 · C. Dansin

29 · M. Mthiyane

17 · E. Makgopa

49 · K. Kgosietsile

11 · T. Moremi

38 · M. Padime

TS Galaxy

Formation not confirmed

16 E. I. Tape

24 L. Mathebula

25 K. Mhlongo

3 M. Mncwango

8 M. Mbunjana

13 S. Xulu

14 T. Kakora

2 M. Mvelase

21 J. Zindoga

17 V. Letsoalo

19 S. George

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. G. Maseti

33 · S. Ngobeni

23 · P. Fisher Norman

4 · M. Kamogelo Mahlangu

6 · N. Nkosi

29 · T. Zandamela

11 · A. Williams

7 · S. Mahlambi

15 · M. Rantoa

Our number · orlando pirates winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

70% The market78%

Us70%

~~Market~~78%

We make Orlando Pirates a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orlando pirates win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orlando Pirates win	70%	78%	−8
Draw	21%	16%	+5
TS Galaxy win	9%	6%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	39%	31%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−5
Orlando Pirates or draw	91%	94%	−3
Orlando Pirates clean sheet	55%	–	–
TS Galaxy clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.7%

0123450 8.4 3.7 1 14.1 9.5 2.6 2 14.7 8.7 2.6 3 9.9 5.8 4 5.1 3.0 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Orlando Pirates down, TS Galaxy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,268 Premier Soccer League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orlando Pirates at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). TS Galaxy away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Orlando Pirates, 0.59 for TS Galaxy. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TSG 0–6 ORL · ORL 2–0 TSG · ORL 1–1 TSG · TSG 0–2 ORL

Form · last six in Premier Soccer League

ORLANDO PIRATES

DWWWWW1–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

TS GALAXY

LDWDLL2–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	+12	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	+15	19
3	Amazulu	7	+3	16
4	Kaizer Chiefs	7	+5	13
5	Milford FC	8	+2	12
6	Sekhukhune United	7	0	11
7	Stellenbosch	7	+1	9
8	Golden Arrows	7	0	8
9	Chippa United	7	−2	8
10	Durban City	7	−1	7
11	Polokwane City	7	−2	7
12	TS Galaxy	7	−2	6
13	Kruger United	7	−9	4
14	Richards Bay	7	−7	3
15	Siwelele	7	−7	3
16	Marumo Gallants	7	−8	2