Marumo Gallants v Siwelele prediction · Premier Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Marumo GallantsDrawSiwelele

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Marumo Gallants 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Marumo Gallants just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Marumo Gallants 35%, draw 33%, Siwelele 32%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Marumo Gallants v SiweleleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Marumo Gallants win35%

Draw33%

Siwelele win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueThohoyandou Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marumo Gallants

Siwelele

13Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier Soccer League (South Africa)

Last match: 24 Oct · League Cup (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Siwelele	8	−6	6
16	Marumo Gallants	8	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marumo gallants winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Marumo Gallants a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marumo Gallants v Siwelele~~1.03 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Premier Soccer League this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~16 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marumo Gallants win	35%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Siwelele win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Marumo Gallants or draw	68%	–	–
Marumo Gallants clean sheet	38%	–	–
Siwelele clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.9%

0123450 14.9 12.2 6.4 2.1 1 12.9 14.3 6.4 2.1 2 7.1 6.8 3.3 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marumo Gallants down, Siwelele across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,276 Premier Soccer League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.4% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marumo Gallants at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Siwelele away: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Marumo Gallants, 0.97 for Siwelele. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–0 SIW · SIW 1–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Soccer League this season · since 15 Aug

MARUMO GALLANTS

LLDLLL0–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

SIWELELE

LDLLDW0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	9	+15	23
2	Orlando Pirates	8	+18	22
3	Amazulu	8	+4	19
4	Milford FC	9	+3	15
5	Kaizer Chiefs	8	+5	14
6	Sekhukhune United	8	+1	14
7	Stellenbosch	8	+1	10
8	Golden Arrows	8	−1	8
9	Chippa United	8	−3	8
10	Durban City	8	−2	7
11	Polokwane City	8	−3	7
12	Kruger United	8	−8	7
13	TS Galaxy	8	−5	6
14	Siwelele	8	−6	6
15	Richards Bay	8	−10	3
16	Marumo Gallants	8	−9	2