Durban City v Amazulu prediction · Premier Soccer League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:11

Durban City 1–2 Amazulu DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~35%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.709

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.677

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 35% before kick-off, 33% now. 0–0 · 35–33–32
1′KICK-OFF Durban City v Amazulu
7′8′ and it is 0–1: Amazulu have scored. 0–1 · 12–22–66
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' Durban City 0–0 Amazulu
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Durban City 0–1 Amazulu
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 22% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Amazulu win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 22%)
8′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 11–22–66
10′7′ and it is 0–1: Mondli Mbanjwa on the scoresheet for Amazulu. 0–1 · 11–22–66
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–22–70
45′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
45′Amazulu ahead on 45′ through A. Maqokola. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Durban City 0–2 Amazulu · A. Maqokola
45′SECOND HALF Durban City 0–2 Amazulu
48′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Durban City 0–2 Amazulu · Mondli Mbanjwa
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 4% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Durban City · On: Tylo Jordan Sanger · Off: Ethan Brooks
73′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Durban City 1–2 Amazulu · A. Maqokola
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 13% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Durban City · On: Lifa Sylvester Makua · Off: Mfanafuthi Mkhize
75′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–12–88
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Durban City · On: Domingo · Off: K. Jurgens
79′⚽ GOAL · 72' Durban City 1–2 Amazulu · Domingo
80′Domingo scores for Durban City on 72′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Amazulu · On: Hendrick Ekstein · Off: Mondli Mbanjwa
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
FTFULL TIME Durban City 1–2 Amazulu
FTDurban City 1–2 Amazulu · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

Durban City win34%

Draw35%

Amazulu win31%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:30

VenueChatsworth Stadium

Line-ups

Durban City

4-2-3-1

Amazulu

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Durban City

Amazulu

23Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Amazulu	7	+3	16
10	Durban City	7	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Durban City

4-2-3-1

33 F. Asare

2 B. Shandu

5 S. Ncanana

30 M. Mkhize

24 J. Mokone

17 K. Jurgens

18 B. Poggenpoel

10 S. Maseko

28 E. Brooks

35 L. Sifumba

20 J. Lwamba

Coach · Khalil Ben Youssef

Substitutes

1 · S. Magoola

4 · F. Gcaba

23 · T. Sanger

7 · H. Domingo

29 · A. Doumbia

26 · T. Nodada

16 · L. Makua

14 · L. Koapeng

27 · S. Msomi

Amazulu

4-4-2

1 O. Mzimela

42 S. Mthethwa

5 K. Allan

12 T. Fielies

3 O. Mdaka

14 N. Radebe

6 S. Hlangabeza

10 S. Maduna

15 M. Mbanjwa

2 A. Maqokola

23 T. Ngwenya

Coach · Arthur Zwane

Substitutes

24 · W. Kouassi

33 · K. Phillips

27 · H. Ekstein

50 · L. Mhlongo

17 · L. Bern

19 · S. Zikhali

22 · B. Thabede

11 · A. Sithole

20 · T. Mashigo

Our number · drawFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

35% The market30%

Us35%

~~Market~~30%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The market has it at 30%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Durban City win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	35%	30%	+5
Amazulu win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	27%	43%	−16
Both teams to score	36%	50%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	55%	68%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	11%	23%	−12
Durban City or draw	69%	67%	+2
Durban City clean sheet	42%	–	–
Amazulu clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.8%

0123450 17.8 13.3 6.4 1 14.0 14.3 5.8 2 7.1 6.1 2.7 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Durban City down, Amazulu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,268 Premier Soccer League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Durban City at home: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Amazulu away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Durban City, 0.88 for Amazulu. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DUR 0–1 AMA · AMA 1–0 DUR

Form · last six in Premier Soccer League

DURBAN CITY

DDWDLD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

AMAZULU

DWLWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	+12	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	+15	19
3	Amazulu	7	+3	16
4	Kaizer Chiefs	7	+5	13
5	Milford FC	8	+2	12
6	Sekhukhune United	7	0	11
7	Stellenbosch	7	+1	9
8	Golden Arrows	7	0	8
9	Chippa United	7	−2	8
10	Durban City	7	−1	7
11	Polokwane City	7	−2	7
12	TS Galaxy	7	−2	6
13	Kruger United	7	−9	4
14	Richards Bay	7	−7	3
15	Siwelele	7	−7	3
16	Marumo Gallants	7	−8	2