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TS Galaxy U23 v Mamelodi Sundowns U23

TS Galaxy U23

1–2Full time

Mamelodi Sundowns U23

Diski Challenge · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

TS Galaxy U23 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns U23 MAMELODI SUNDOWNS U23 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mamelodi Sundowns U23 was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 23–22–55
1′KICK-OFF TS Galaxy U23 v Mamelodi Sundowns U23
31′We published Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 7–16–78
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' TS Galaxy U23 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 7–16–78
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' TS Galaxy U23 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′We said Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 21–35–43
45′HALF-TIME TS Galaxy U23 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' TS Galaxy U23
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Mamelodi Sundowns U23
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' TS Galaxy U23 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
46′SECOND HALF TS Galaxy U23 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' TS Galaxy U23
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Mamelodi Sundowns U23
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' TS Galaxy U23 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
54′We said Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 20–41–39
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win 38%)
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
62′We said Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 18–47–34
69′We said Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 16–55–29
69′We published Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' TS Galaxy U23 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: 55% at kick-off, 84% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
70′We published Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
79′We published Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
87′We published Mamelodi Sundowns U23 at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME TS Galaxy U23 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns U23
FTTS Galaxy U23 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns U23 · Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mamelodi Sundowns U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TS Galaxy U23 23%, draw 22%, Mamelodi Sundowns U23 55%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on TS Galaxy U23 v Mamelodi Sundowns U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

TS Galaxy U23 win23%

Draw22%

Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win55%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TS Galaxy U23

Mamelodi Sundowns U23

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Diski Challenge

Last match: 11 Oct · Diski Challenge

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	TS Galaxy U23	3	+2	7
6	Mamelodi Sundowns U23	3	+3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mamelodi sundowns u23 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Mamelodi Sundowns U23 a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TS Galaxy U23 v Mamelodi Sundowns U23~~1.14 – 1.91

~~Form · Diski Challenge this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TS Galaxy U23 win	23%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
TS Galaxy U23 or draw	45%	–	–
TS Galaxy U23 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.0 9.1 8.6 5.5 2.7 1 5.5 10.3 9.6 6.1 3.0 2 3.2 5.8 5.4 3.4 3 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TS Galaxy U23 down, Mamelodi Sundowns U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,287 Diski Challenge matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Diski Challenge matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TS Galaxy U23 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mamelodi Sundowns U23 away: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for TS Galaxy U23, 1.91 for Mamelodi Sundowns U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAM 3–1 TSG · TSG 2–3 MAM · MAM 2–0 TSG · TSG 1–2 MAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Diski Challenge this season · since 26 Sept

TS GALAXY U23

WWD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

MAMELODI SUNDOWNS U23

WLW4–2 · 2–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaizer Chiefs U23	4	+8	12
2	Sekhukhune United U23	4	+6	10
3	Golden Arrows U23	4	+7	9
4	AmaZulu U23	4	+3	7
5	TS Galaxy U23	3	+2	7
6	Mamelodi Sundowns U23	3	+3	6
7	Siwelele U23	3	+2	6
8	Marumo Gallants U23	4	−4	4
9	Orlando Pirates U23	3	+1	3
10	Polokwane City U23	4	−2	3
11	Milford FC U23	3	−2	3
12	Richards Bay U23	4	−2	3
13	Stellenbosch U23	3	−3	3
14	Kruger United U23	3	−3	3
15	Chippa United U23	4	−11	3
16	Durban City U23	3	−5	0