Home › Football › Diski Challenge › Kruger United U23 v Orlando Pirates U23

Kruger United U23 v Orlando Pirates U23

Kruger United U23

1–1Full time

Orlando Pirates U23

Diski Challenge · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 11:34

Kruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23 ORLANDO PIRATES U23 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orlando Pirates U23 win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.970

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orlando Pirates U23 win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Orlando Pirates U23 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 20–23–57
1′KICK-OFF Kruger United U23 v Orlando Pirates U23
31′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 6–15–80
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 6–15–80
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Kruger United U23 0–1 Orlando Pirates U23
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Orlando Pirates U23 win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Kruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Orlando Pirates U23 win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
43′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 1–1 · 19–35–45
45′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 19–36–44
45′HALF-TIME Kruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23
46′SECOND HALF Kruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23
48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' Kruger United U23
48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' Orlando Pirates U23
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23
55′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 18–43–39
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Orlando Pirates U23 win 39%)
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Orlando Pirates U23 win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
61′Goalless on 61′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 17–48–36 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
63′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 16–50–34
69′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 14–57–29
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Orlando Pirates U23 win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
74′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 12–64–24
79′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 9–73–18
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Orlando Pirates U23 win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
82′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 7–79–14
86′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 5–86–9
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Orlando Pirates U23 win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
92′We said Orlando Pirates U23 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–94–4
FTFULL TIME Kruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23
FTKruger United U23 1–1 Orlando Pirates U23 · Orlando Pirates U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orlando Pirates U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kruger United U23 20%, draw 22%, Orlando Pirates U23 57%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Kruger United U23 v Orlando Pirates U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kruger United U23 win20%

Draw22%

Orlando Pirates U23 win57%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kruger United U23

Orlando Pirates U23

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Diski Challenge

Last match: 10 Oct · Diski Challenge

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Orlando Pirates U23	3	+1	3
14	Kruger United U23	3	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orlando pirates u23 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Orlando Pirates U23 a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kruger United U23 v Orlando Pirates U23~~0.99 – 1.86

~~Form · Diski Challenge this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~14 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kruger United U23 win	20%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Orlando Pirates U23 win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Kruger United U23 or draw	43%	–	–
Kruger United U23 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Orlando Pirates U23 clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.7%

0123450 6.1 10.7 9.9 6.2 3.0 1 5.9 10.5 9.4 5.8 2.8 2 3.0 5.3 4.7 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kruger United U23 down, Orlando Pirates U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,287 Diski Challenge matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Diski Challenge matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kruger United U23 at home: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Orlando Pirates U23 away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Kruger United U23, 1.86 for Orlando Pirates U23. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Diski Challenge this season · since 26 Sept

KRUGER UNITED U23

WLL2–0 · 1–3 · 0–3

ORLANDO PIRATES U23

LWL2–3 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaizer Chiefs U23	4	+8	12
2	Sekhukhune United U23	4	+6	10
3	Golden Arrows U23	4	+7	9
4	AmaZulu U23	4	+3	7
5	TS Galaxy U23	3	+2	7
6	Mamelodi Sundowns U23	3	+3	6
7	Siwelele U23	3	+2	6
8	Marumo Gallants U23	4	−4	4
9	Orlando Pirates U23	3	+1	3
10	Polokwane City U23	4	−2	3
11	Milford FC U23	3	−2	3
12	Richards Bay U23	4	−2	3
13	Stellenbosch U23	3	−3	3
14	Kruger United U23	3	−3	3
15	Chippa United U23	4	−11	3
16	Durban City U23	3	−5	0