Kaizer Chiefs U23 v Marumo Gallants U23

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kaizer Chiefs U23 win at 72%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Kaizer Chiefs U23 was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–16–12
3. 1′KICK-OFF Kaizer Chiefs U23 v Marumo Gallants U23
4. 13′We published Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Kaizer Chiefs U23 1–0 Marumo Gallants U23
6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, 87% now
7. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 86–10–4
8. 32′We published Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
9. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kaizer Chiefs U23 2–0 Marumo Gallants U23
10. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
11. 45′HALF-TIME Kaizer Chiefs U23 2–0 Marumo Gallants U23
12. 46′SECOND HALF Kaizer Chiefs U23 2–0 Marumo Gallants U23
13. 49′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–31–14 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
14. 50′We published Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
15. 50′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–14
16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Marumo Gallants U23
17. 55′We expected about 3.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 51–35–14
18. 55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Kaizer Chiefs U23
19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, 51% now
20. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Marumo Gallants U23
21. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, over 99% now
22. 58′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–13
23. 58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Kaizer Chiefs U23
24. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, 49% now
25. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Marumo Gallants U23
26. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, over 99% now
27. 62′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
28. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Kaizer Chiefs U23 4–0 Marumo Gallants U23
29. 71′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–52–11
30. 74′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–57–10
31. 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Kaizer Chiefs U23
32. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, 33% now
33. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Kaizer Chiefs U23 win 33%)
34. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Kaizer Chiefs U23 4–0 Marumo Gallants U23
35. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, over 99% now
36. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw under 1%)
37. 77′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–63–9
38. 77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 77' Kaizer Chiefs U23
39. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, 28% now
40. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Kaizer Chiefs U23 win 28%)
41. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Kaizer Chiefs U23 4–0 Marumo Gallants U23
42. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 72% at kick-off, over 99% now
43. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw under 1%)
44. FTFULL TIME Kaizer Chiefs U23 4–0 Marumo Gallants U23
45. FTKaizer Chiefs U23 4–0 Marumo Gallants U23 · Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.