Kaizer Chiefs U23 v Durban City U23 prediction · Diski Challenge

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38

Kaizer Chiefs U23 5–1 Durban City U23 KAIZER CHIEFS U23 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kaizer Chiefs U23 win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kaizer Chiefs U23 was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–18–14
1′KICK-OFF Kaizer Chiefs U23 v Durban City U23
23′We published Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 68%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Kaizer Chiefs U23 1–0 Durban City U23
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 85% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 85–11–4
30′We published Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 68%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Kaizer Chiefs U23 2–0 Durban City U23
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 96% now
37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Kaizer Chiefs U23
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 57% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Kaizer Chiefs U23 2–0 Durban City U23
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
42′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–15
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Durban City U23
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Kaizer Chiefs U23
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 55% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Durban City U23
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
44′We published Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Durban City U23
46′SECOND HALF Kaizer Chiefs U23 3–0 Durban City U23
48′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Kaizer Chiefs U23 4–0 Durban City U23
66′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Kaizer Chiefs U23 4–1 Durban City U23
75′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kaizer Chiefs U23 5–1 Durban City U23
85′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–82–5
90′We said Kaizer Chiefs U23 at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–90–3
FTFULL TIME Kaizer Chiefs U23 5–1 Durban City U23
FTKaizer Chiefs U23 5–1 Durban City U23 · Kaizer Chiefs U23 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kaizer Chiefs U23 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaizer Chiefs U23 68%, draw 18%, Durban City U23 14%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Kaizer Chiefs U23 v Durban City U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kaizer Chiefs U23 win68%

Draw18%

Durban City U23 win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaizer Chiefs U23

Durban City U23

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Diski Challenge

Last match: 18 Oct · Diski Challenge

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaizer chiefs u23 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Kaizer Chiefs U23 a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaizer Chiefs U23 v Durban City U23~~2.37 – 0.95

~~Form · Diski Challenge this season · since 26 Sept~~W4 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 1~~1 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kaizer Chiefs U23 win

Published at 69%, 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaizer Chiefs U23 win	68%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Durban City U23 win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Kaizer Chiefs U23 or draw	86%	–	–
Kaizer Chiefs U23 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Durban City U23 clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 3.4 1 8.5 8.4 3.9 2 10.1 9.4 4.5 3 7.9 7.4 3.5 4 4.7 4.4 2.1 5 2.3 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaizer Chiefs U23 down, Durban City U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,291 Diski Challenge matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Diski Challenge matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaizer Chiefs U23 at home: 3.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Durban City U23 away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Kaizer Chiefs U23, 0.95 for Durban City U23. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KAI 2–1 DUR · DUR 1–1 KAI · KAI 5–0 DUR · DUR 1–2 KAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Diski Challenge this season · since 26 Sept

KAIZER CHIEFS U23

WWWW3–2 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 4–0

DURBAN CITY U23

LLLD2–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaizer Chiefs U23	4	+8	12
2	Sekhukhune United U23	4	+6	10
3	Golden Arrows U23	4	+7	9
4	Mamelodi Sundowns U23	4	+4	9
5	AmaZulu U23	4	+3	7
6	Siwelele U23	4	+2	7
7	TS Galaxy U23	4	+1	7
8	Orlando Pirates U23	4	+1	4
9	Milford FC U23	4	−2	4
10	Stellenbosch U23	4	−3	4
11	Kruger United U23	4	−3	4
12	Marumo Gallants U23	4	−4	4
13	Polokwane City U23	4	−2	3
14	Richards Bay U23	4	−2	3
15	Chippa United U23	4	−11	3
16	Durban City U23	4	−5	1