Home › Football › 8 Cup › Orlando Pirates v Mamelodi Sundowns

Orlando Pirates v Mamelodi Sundowns

Orlando Pirates

0–2Full time

Mamelodi Sundowns

8 Cup · SAT 10 OCT · Moses Mabhida Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Orlando Pirates 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns ORLANDO PIRATES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orlando Pirates win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orlando Pirates win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Orlando Pirates 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–31
6′Little has changed for our model: Orlando Pirates 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
22′Mamelodi Sundowns ahead on 12′ through T. Mokoena. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–62
30′Mamelodi Sundowns ahead on 12′ through T. Mokoena. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–64
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Mamelodi Sundowns win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Orlando Pirates win 8%)
45′SECOND HALF Orlando Pirates 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Orlando Pirates win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Orlando Pirates · On: O. Appollis · Off: S. Selepe Corrected
46′We said Orlando Pirates at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Orlando Pirates win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Mamelodi Sundowns win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Orlando Pirates win 8%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Orlando Pirates win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Mamelodi Sundowns win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Orlando Pirates win 8%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Orlando Pirates win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Mamelodi Sundowns win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Orlando Pirates win 8%)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Orlando Pirates
51′We said Orlando Pirates at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–70
62′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Orlando Pirates
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: T. Cele · Off: N. Santos
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pirates · On: K. Kgosietsile · Off: T. Moremi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pirates · On: E. Makgopa · Off: Y. Mbuthuma
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pirates · On: S. Masilela · Off: S. Selepe
80′⚽ GOAL · 12' Orlando Pirates 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns · T. Mokoena
80′🟨 YELLOW · 24' S. Selepe · Orlando Pirates
80′🟨 YELLOW · 38' T. Matthews · Mamelodi Sundowns
80′🟨 YELLOW · 41' A. Modiba · Mamelodi Sundowns
80′🟨 YELLOW · 46' K. Sebelebele · Orlando Pirates
80′🟨 YELLOW · 48' K. Ndamane · Mamelodi Sundowns
80′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: D. Lunga · Off: A. Modiba
80′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Orlando Pirates · On: O. Appollis · Off: K. Sebelebele
80′🟨 YELLOW · 49' T. Moremi · Orlando Pirates
80′PENALTY MISSED · 62' G. Lungu · Orlando Pirates
80′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: T. Cele · Off: N. Santos
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pirates · On: K. Kgosietsile · Off: T. Moremi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pirates · On: E. Makgopa · Off: Y. Mbuthuma
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pirates · On: S. Masilela · Off: S. Selepe
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: I. Rayners · Off: B. Leon
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mamelodi Sundowns · On: S. Ndlovu · Off: T. Matthews
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Orlando Pirates · On: M. Nkota · Off: T. Mbatha
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' N. Sibisi · Orlando Pirates
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Mamelodi Sundowns
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Orlando Pirates 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns · T. Mokoena
94′⚽ GOAL · 96' Orlando Pirates 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns
FTFULL TIME Orlando Pirates 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns
FTOrlando Pirates 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns · Orlando Pirates win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Orlando Pirates win40%

Draw29%

Mamelodi Sundowns win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Moses Mabhida Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Orlando Pirates

Formation not confirmed

24 S. Chaine

36 K. Sebelebele

6 L. Seema

5 N. Sibisi

7 D. Hotto

20 S. Selepe

16 T. Mbatha

23 G. Lungu

33 T. Mokobodi

11 T. Moremi

9 Y. Mbuthuma

Coach · Abdeslam Ouaddou

Substitutes

32 · S. Dladla

37 · S. Zulu

3 · N. Ndaba

48 · S. Masilela

29 · M. Mthiyane

17 · E. Makgopa

49 · K. Kgosietsile

21 · M. Nkota

12 · O. Appollis

Mamelodi Sundowns

Formation not confirmed

30 R. Williams

27 T. Morena

22 T. Matuludi

42 M. Khoza

3 K. Ndamane

6 A. Modiba

10 N. Santos

4 T. Mokoena

11 M. Allende

17 T. Matthews

12 B. Leon

Coach · Miguel Cardoso

Substitutes

31 · R. Goss

40 · M. Mvala

5 · D. Lunga

33 · C. Mailula

38 · S. Ndlovu

18 · T. Zwane

19 · T. Cele

13 · I. Rayners

29 · A. van Wyk

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Orlando Pirates

Formation not confirmed

24 S. Chaine

36 K. Sebelebele

6 L. Seema

5 N. Sibisi

7 D. Hotto

20 S. Selepe

16 T. Mbatha

23 G. Lungu

33 T. Mokobodi

11 T. Moremi

9 Y. Mbuthuma

Coach · Abdeslam Ouaddou

Substitutes

32 · S. Dladla

37 · S. Zulu

3 · N. Ndaba

48 · S. Masilela

29 · M. Mthiyane

17 · E. Makgopa

49 · K. Kgosietsile

21 · M. Nkota

12 · O. Appollis

Mamelodi Sundowns

Formation not confirmed

30 R. Williams

27 T. Morena

22 T. Matuludi

42 M. Khoza

3 K. Ndamane

6 A. Modiba

10 N. Santos

4 T. Mokoena

11 M. Allende

17 T. Matthews

12 B. Leon

Coach · Miguel Cardoso

Substitutes

31 · R. Goss

40 · M. Mvala

5 · D. Lunga

33 · C. Mailula

38 · S. Ndlovu

18 · T. Zwane

19 · T. Cele

13 · I. Rayners

29 · A. van Wyk

Our number · orlando pirates winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Orlando Pirates a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orlando pirates win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orlando Pirates win	40%	33%	+7
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Mamelodi Sundowns win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	41%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	0
Orlando Pirates or draw	70%	64%	+6
Orlando Pirates clean sheet	33%	–	–
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 8.8 5.5 2.0 1 10.6 13.8 7.0 2.6 2 7.7 8.3 4.6 3 3.4 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orlando Pirates down, Mamelodi Sundowns across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,268 Premier Soccer League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orlando Pirates at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mamelodi Sundowns away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Orlando Pirates, 1.11 for Mamelodi Sundowns. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORL 1–2 MAM · MAM 1–1 ORL · ORL 2–1 MAM · MAM 4–1 ORL

Form · last six in 8 Cup

ORLANDO PIRATES

DWWWWW1–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

MAMELODI SUNDOWNS

WWWWWD2–0 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Orlando Pirates	3	+4	7
2	Golden Arrows	3	+1	6
3	Mamelodi Sundowns	3	0	4
4	Amazulu	1	0	1
5	Polokwane City	1	0	1
6	Durban City	1	0	1
7	Sekhukhune United	3	−4	1
8	Kaizer Chiefs	1	−1	0