Venda FC v Magesi prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Venda FC 1–3 Magesi MAGESI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Magesi win~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.655

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Magesi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Venda FC 34%, draw 33%, Magesi 34%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Venda FC v MagesiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Venda FC win34%

Draw33%

Magesi win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Venda FC

Magesi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Magesi	6	+5	14
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · magesi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

34% The market–

Us34%

We make Magesi a 34% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Venda FC v Magesi~~0.96 – 0.96

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 14~~16 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Venda FC win	34%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Magesi win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Venda FC or draw	66%	–	–
Venda FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Magesi clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.2 13.7 6.8 2.2 1 13.5 13.9 6.5 2.1 2 6.7 6.4 3.1 3 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Venda FC down, Magesi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Venda FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Magesi away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Venda FC, 0.96 for Magesi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAG 2–2 VEN · VEN 2–0 MAG · VEN 0–1 MAG · MAG 1–0 VEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 21 Aug

VENDA FC

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

MAGESI

WWWWDD1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Town City	7	+5	14
2	Magesi	6	+5	14
3	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
4	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
5	Highbury	7	+1	11
6	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
7	Leicesterfield	6	0	10
8	Hope FC	6	0	10
9	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
10	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8
11	Upington City	6	0	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	6	0	7
13	NWU FC	6	−3	4
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3
15	The Bees	6	−6	3
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1