Upington City v Orbit College prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Upington City 2–0 Orbit College UPINGTON CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Upington City win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Upington City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Upington City 43%, draw 30%, Orbit College 27%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Upington City v Orbit CollegeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Upington City win43%

Draw30%

Orbit College win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Upington City

Orbit College

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Upington City	6	0	8
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · upington city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Upington City a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Upington City v Orbit College~~1.21 – 0.89

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Upington City win	43%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Orbit College win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Upington City or draw	73%	–	–
Upington City clean sheet	41%	–	–
Orbit College clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 12.8 10.4 4.8 1 14.4 13.5 5.8 2 9.0 7.9 3.5 3 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Upington City down, Orbit College across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Upington City at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Orbit College away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Upington City, 0.89 for Orbit College. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ORB 1–1 UPI · UPI 1–2 ORB · ORB 1–2 UPI · UPI 2–3 ORB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 22 Aug

UPINGTON CITY

DWLWDL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 1–2

ORBIT COLLEGE

LDLDLD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Town City	7	+5	14
2	Magesi	6	+5	14
3	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
4	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
5	Highbury	7	+1	11
6	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
7	Leicesterfield	6	0	10
8	Hope FC	6	0	10
9	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
10	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8
11	Upington City	6	0	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	6	0	7
13	NWU FC	6	−3	4
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3
15	The Bees	6	−6	3
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1