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University of Pretoria v Leicesterfield

University of Pretoria

2–0Full time

Leicesterfield

1st Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

University of Pretoria 2–0 Leicesterfield UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said University of Pretoria win~~47%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said University of Pretoria win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: University of Pretoria 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–25
1′KICK-OFF University of Pretoria v Leicesterfield
20′We said University of Pretoria at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–26–56
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' University of Pretoria 0–1 Leicesterfield
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' University of Pretoria win: 47% at kick-off, 18% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Leicesterfield win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was University of Pretoria win 18%)
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' University of Pretoria win: 47% at kick-off, 38% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
45′HALF-TIME University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
46′SECOND HALF University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' University of Pretoria 1–0 Leicesterfield
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' University of Pretoria 2–0 Leicesterfield
FTFULL TIME University of Pretoria 2–0 Leicesterfield
FTUniversity of Pretoria 2–0 Leicesterfield · University of Pretoria win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

University of Pretoria win47%

Draw28%

Leicesterfield win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · university of pretoria winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

47% The market44%

Us47%

~~Market~~44%

We make University of Pretoria a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · university of pretoria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
University of Pretoria win	47%	44%	+3
Draw	28%	30%	−1
Leicesterfield win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−3
University of Pretoria or draw	75%	73%	+2
University of Pretoria clean sheet	40%	–	–
Leicesterfield clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.3 8.8 4.3 1 13.3 13.0 5.9 2 9.4 8.7 4.1 3 4.4 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+University of Pretoria down, Leicesterfield across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,239 1st Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

University of Pretoria at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Leicesterfield away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for University of Pretoria, 0.93 for Leicesterfield. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEI 2–1 UNI · UNI 5–0 LEI

Form · last six in 1st Division

UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA

WLLWDD6–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–3

LEICESTERFIELD

LWDLWW2–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	5	+5	13
2	Casric Stars	5	+4	12
3	Leicesterfield	5	+2	10
4	Highbury	5	+2	10
5	Hope FC	5	0	9
6	Cape Town City	5	+2	8
7	Upington City	5	+1	8
8	Gomora United FC	5	0	8
9	Lerumo Lions	5	+1	7
10	Hungry Lions	5	+1	6
11	University of Pretoria	5	−1	5
12	Midlands Wanderers	5	−1	4
13	NWU FC	5	−3	3
14	The Bees	5	−4	3
15	Orbit College	5	−3	2
16	Venda FC	5	−6	1