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University of Pretoria v Hungry Lions

University of Pretoria

0–2Full time

Hungry Lions

1st Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

University of Pretoria 0–2 Hungry Lions UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said University of Pretoria win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.724

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said University of Pretoria win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: University of Pretoria was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
1′KICK-OFF University of Pretoria v Hungry Lions
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was University of Pretoria win 34%)
38′Much as we predicted: University of Pretoria was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 32% now. 0–0 · 32–41–27
40′We said University of Pretoria at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' University of Pretoria 0–1 Hungry Lions
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' University of Pretoria win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Hungry Lions win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–69
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Hungry Lions
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' University of Pretoria win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Hungry Lions win 26%)
45′HALF-TIME University of Pretoria 0–0 Hungry Lions
46′SECOND HALF University of Pretoria 0–0 Hungry Lions
53′We said University of Pretoria at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' University of Pretoria 0–1 Hungry Lions
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' University of Pretoria win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Hungry Lions win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
60′We said University of Pretoria at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
63′We said University of Pretoria at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–58–19
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Hungry Lions
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' University of Pretoria win: 39% at kick-off, 21% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Hungry Lions win 18%)
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' University of Pretoria 0–1 Hungry Lions
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' University of Pretoria win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Hungry Lions win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
71′We said University of Pretoria at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–67–15
79′We said University of Pretoria at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–78–10
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' University of Pretoria 1–1 Hungry Lions
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Hungry Lions win 10%)
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' University of Pretoria
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Hungry Lions win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' University of Pretoria 0–2 Hungry Lions
FTFULL TIME University of Pretoria 0–2 Hungry Lions
FTUniversity of Pretoria 0–2 Hungry Lions · University of Pretoria win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

University of Pretoria are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: University of Pretoria 39%, draw 30%, Hungry Lions 31%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on University of Pretoria v Hungry LionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

University of Pretoria win39%

Draw30%

Hungry Lions win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

University of Pretoria

Hungry Lions

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
10	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · university of pretoria winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make University of Pretoria a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · University of Pretoria v Hungry Lions~~1.17 – 1.01

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~10 v 9

~~The market · University of Pretoria win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · University of Pretoria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
University of Pretoria win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	30%	32%	−2
Hungry Lions win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Both teams to score	44%	44%	0
Over 1.5 goals	64%	62%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	18%	0
University of Pretoria or draw	69%	69%	0
University of Pretoria clean sheet	36%	–	–
Hungry Lions clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.8 11.0 5.8 1 12.7 13.7 6.7 2.3 2 7.7 7.7 3.9 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+University of Pretoria down, Hungry Lions across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

University of Pretoria at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hungry Lions away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for University of Pretoria, 1.01 for Hungry Lions. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HUN 4–2 UNI · HUN 0–0 UNI · UNI 0–0 HUN · HUN 0–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 22 Aug

UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA

LLWDDW0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 2–0

HUNGRY LIONS

DDLWDW2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Town City	7	+5	14
2	Magesi	6	+5	14
3	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
4	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
5	Highbury	7	+1	11
6	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
7	Leicesterfield	6	0	10
8	Hope FC	6	0	10
9	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
10	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8
11	Upington City	6	0	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	6	0	7
13	NWU FC	6	−3	4
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3
15	The Bees	6	−6	3
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1