The Bees v Casric Stars prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

The Bees 0–1 Casric Stars THE BEES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said The Bees win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with The Bees just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: The Bees 36%, draw 29%, Casric Stars 35%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on The Bees v Casric StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

The Bees win36%

Draw29%

Casric Stars win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

The Bees

Casric Stars

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
15	The Bees	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · the bees winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make The Bees a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · The Bees v Casric Stars~~1.17 – 1.14

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 12~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · The Bees win

Published at 37%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
The Bees win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Casric Stars win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
The Bees or draw	65%	–	–
The Bees clean sheet	32%	–	–
Casric Stars clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.4 10.8 6.4 2.5 1 11.1 13.6 7.5 2.9 2 6.8 7.7 4.4 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+The Bees down, Casric Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

The Bees at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Casric Stars away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for The Bees, 1.14 for Casric Stars. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAS 1–0 THE · THE 2–0 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 21 Aug

THE BEES

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

CASRIC STARS

WLWWWL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Town City	7	+5	14
2	Magesi	6	+5	14
3	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
4	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
5	Highbury	7	+1	11
6	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
7	Leicesterfield	6	0	10
8	Hope FC	6	0	10
9	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
10	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8
11	Upington City	6	0	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	6	0	7
13	NWU FC	6	−3	4
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3
15	The Bees	6	−6	3
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1