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Orbit College v Highbury

Orbit College

2–2Full time

Highbury

1st Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Orbit College 2–2 Highbury ORBIT COLLEGE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orbit College win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.695

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.717

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orbit College win at 41%.
45′Much as we predicted: Orbit College was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 31% now. 1–1 · 31–48–21
56′We published Orbit College at 41%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Orbit College win 31%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Orbit College win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Orbit College win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Orbit College win 31%)
59′We published Orbit College at 41%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–2
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Orbit College win 31%)
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Orbit College win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Orbit College 2–1 Highbury
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Orbit College 2–1 Highbury
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Orbit College win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
FTFULL TIME Orbit College 2–2 Highbury
FTOrbit College 2–2 Highbury · Orbit College win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Orbit College win41%

Draw32%

Highbury win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orbit college winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Orbit College a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orbit college win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orbit College win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Highbury win	27%	37%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Both teams to score	37%	44%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	56%	62%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	12%	18%	−5
Orbit College or draw	73%	63%	+11
Orbit College clean sheet	45%	–	–
Highbury clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%

0123450 15.8 11.9 4.9 1 16.0 13.5 5.3 2 8.8 7.0 2.8 3 3.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orbit College down, Highbury across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,239 1st Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orbit College at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Highbury away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Orbit College, 0.81 for Highbury. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ORB 0–1 HIG · HIG 0–1 ORB

Form · last six in 1st Division

ORBIT COLLEGE

DLDLDL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

HIGHBURY

WWWWLD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	5	+5	13
2	Casric Stars	5	+4	12
3	Leicesterfield	5	+2	10
4	Highbury	5	+2	10
5	Hope FC	5	0	9
6	Cape Town City	5	+2	8
7	Upington City	5	+1	8
8	Gomora United FC	5	0	8
9	Lerumo Lions	5	+1	7
10	Hungry Lions	5	+1	6
11	University of Pretoria	5	−1	5
12	Midlands Wanderers	5	−1	4
13	NWU FC	5	−3	3
14	The Bees	5	−4	3
15	Orbit College	5	−3	2
16	Venda FC	5	−6	1