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Model 1.2

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Orbit College v Cape Town City

Orbit College
1–2Full time
Cape Town City

1st Division · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
Orbit College 1–2 Cape Town City CAPE TOWN CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cape Town City win35%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.625
The market’s Brier score0.502

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cape Town City just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Orbit College 34%, draw 31%, Cape Town City 35%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Orbit College v Cape Town CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Orbit College win34%
Draw31%
Cape Town City win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orbit College

Cape Town City

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

Last match: 16 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Cape Town City7+514
14Orbit College7−53

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cape town city winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
35% The market42%
Us35%
Market42%

We make Cape Town City a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Orbit College v Cape Town City1.02 – 1.06
Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 28 AugW0 D3 L3 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 3 v 1414 v 3
The market · Cape Town City win42% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:17
Our probability · Cape Town City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Orbit College win34%27%+7
Draw31%31%0
Cape Town City win35%42%−7
Over 2.5 goals35%38%−3
Both teams to score42%44%−2
Over 1.5 goals62%62%0
Over 3.5 goals16%19%−3
Orbit College or draw65%58%+7
Orbit College clean sheet35%––
Cape Town City clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%
0123450 13.0 12.8 7.0 2.5 1 12.4 13.8 7.1 2.5 2 6.5 6.8 3.6 3 2.3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Orbit College down, Cape Town City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting0.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsORB 1–0 CAP · CAP 0–0 ORB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 28 Aug

ORBIT COLLEGE

DLDLDL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

CAPE TOWN CITY

DWWDWW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Magesi7+717
2Casric Stars8+316
3Cape Town City7+514
4Hungry Lions7+512
5Highbury8+112
6Upington City7+211
7Lerumo Lions7+211
8Gomora United FC7011
9Hope FC7011
10Leicesterfield7−110
11Midlands Wanderers708
12University of Pretoria7−18
13NWU FC7−27
14Orbit College7−53
15The Bees7−73
16Venda FC7−91

The competition's standings before kick-off.