NWU FC v University of Pretoria prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria NWU FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NWU FC win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NWU FC win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: NWU FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–27
1′KICK-OFF NWU FC v University of Pretoria
6′We said NWU FC at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–58
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' NWU FC 0–1 University of Pretoria
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' University of Pretoria win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was NWU FC win 42%)
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' NWU FC 1–1 University of Pretoria
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' NWU FC win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was University of Pretoria win 60%)
17′We published NWU FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 74%. 2–1 · 74–18–7
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
20′We published NWU FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–7
29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' NWU FC
29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' University of Pretoria
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 76–18–6
45′HALF-TIME NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' NWU FC
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' University of Pretoria
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was NWU FC win 78%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' NWU FC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 46%)
52′We published NWU FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
58′SECOND HALF NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' NWU FC
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' University of Pretoria
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 26% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was NWU FC win 81%)
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+14' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' NWU FC win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 55%)
63′We said NWU FC at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
67′We published NWU FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
77′We published NWU FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' NWU FC win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
84′We published NWU FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME NWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria
FTNWU FC 2–1 University of Pretoria · NWU FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NWU FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NWU FC 42%, draw 31%, University of Pretoria 27%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on NWU FC v University of PretoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NWU FC win42%

Draw31%

University of Pretoria win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NWU FC

University of Pretoria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	University of Pretoria	7	−1	8
13	NWU FC	7	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nwu fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make NWU FC a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NWU FC v University of Pretoria~~1.17 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NWU FC win	42%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
University of Pretoria win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
NWU FC or draw	73%	–	–
NWU FC clean sheet	42%	–	–
University of Pretoria clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 13.5 11.0 4.9 1 14.9 13.5 5.7 2 8.9 7.7 3.3 3 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NWU FC down, University of Pretoria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

NWU FC at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). University of Pretoria away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for NWU FC, 0.87 for University of Pretoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 29 Aug

NWU FC

LLDDDW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA

LWDDWL0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	7	+7	17
2	Cape Town City	8	+6	17
3	Casric Stars	8	+3	16
4	Upington City	8	+3	14
5	Hope FC	8	+1	14
6	Hungry Lions	7	+5	12
7	Highbury	8	+1	12
8	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
9	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
10	Leicesterfield	7	−1	10
11	University of Pretoria	7	−1	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	8	−1	8
13	NWU FC	7	−2	7
14	Orbit College	8	−6	3
15	The Bees	8	−8	3
16	Venda FC	7	−9	1