Midlands Wanderers v Upington City prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:28

Midlands Wanderers 0–1 Upington City MIDLANDS WANDERERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Midlands Wanderers win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.697

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Midlands Wanderers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Midlands Wanderers 38%, draw 30%, Upington City 32%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Midlands Wanderers v Upington CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Midlands Wanderers win38%

Draw30%

Upington City win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Midlands Wanderers

Upington City

8Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Upington City	7	+2	11
11	Midlands Wanderers	7	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · midlands wanderers winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Midlands Wanderers a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Midlands Wanderers v Upington City~~1.18 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Midlands Wanderers win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Midlands Wanderers win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Upington City win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Midlands Wanderers or draw	68%	–	–
Midlands Wanderers clean sheet	35%	–	–
Upington City clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.3 11.0 6.0 2.1 1 12.3 13.6 6.9 2.4 2 7.5 7.8 4.1 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Midlands Wanderers down, Upington City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,255 1st Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Midlands Wanderers at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Upington City away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Midlands Wanderers, 1.05 for Upington City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MID 2–1 UPI · UPI 2–1 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 29 Aug

MIDLANDS WANDERERS

WLDLWD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

UPINGTON CITY

WLWDLW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	7	+7	17
2	Casric Stars	7	+3	15
3	Cape Town City	7	+5	14
4	Hungry Lions	7	+5	12
5	Upington City	7	+2	11
6	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
7	Highbury	7	+1	11
8	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
9	Hope FC	7	0	11
10	Leicesterfield	7	−1	10
11	Midlands Wanderers	7	0	8
12	University of Pretoria	7	−1	8
13	NWU FC	7	−2	7
14	Orbit College	7	−5	3
15	The Bees	7	−7	3
16	Venda FC	7	−9	1