Lerumo Lions v University of Pretoria prediction · 1st Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lerumo LionsDrawUniversity of Pretoria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lerumo Lions 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lerumo Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lerumo Lions 48%, draw 28%, University of Pretoria 25%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Lerumo Lions v University of PretoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Lerumo Lions win48%

Draw28%

University of Pretoria win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lerumo Lions

University of Pretoria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Lerumo Lions	8	+5	14
13	University of Pretoria	8	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lerumo lions winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Lerumo Lions a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lerumo Lions v University of Pretoria~~1.39 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lerumo Lions win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
University of Pretoria win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Lerumo Lions or draw	75%	–	–
Lerumo Lions clean sheet	40%	–	–
University of Pretoria clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 10.4 8.9 4.2 1 13.5 12.9 5.8 2 9.6 8.7 4.0 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lerumo Lions down, University of Pretoria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 1st Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lerumo Lions at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). University of Pretoria away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Lerumo Lions, 0.92 for University of Pretoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–1 LER · LER 2–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

LERUMO LIONS

WLLDWW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA

WDDWLL2–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	8	+8	20
2	Cape Town City	8	+6	17
3	Casric Stars	8	+3	16
4	Hungry Lions	8	+6	15
5	Lerumo Lions	8	+5	14
6	Upington City	8	+3	14
7	Hope FC	8	+1	14
8	Highbury	8	+1	12
9	Gomora United FC	8	−1	11
10	NWU FC	8	−1	10
11	Leicesterfield	8	−4	10
12	Midlands Wanderers	8	−1	8
13	University of Pretoria	8	−2	8
14	Orbit College	8	−6	3
15	The Bees	8	−8	3
16	Venda FC	8	−10	1