Hungry Lions v Venda FC prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Hungry Lions 1–0 Venda FC HUNGRY LIONS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hungry Lions win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hungry Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hungry Lions 52%, draw 28%, Venda FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Hungry Lions v Venda FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hungry Lions win52%

Draw28%

Venda FC win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hungry Lions

Venda FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hungry Lions	7	+5	12
16	Venda FC	7	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hungry lions winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Hungry Lions a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hungry Lions v Venda FC~~1.39 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 12 v 1~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hungry Lions win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Venda FC win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Hungry Lions or draw	81%	–	–
Hungry Lions clean sheet	49%	–	–
Venda FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 12.5 8.5 3.2 1 16.4 12.4 4.4 2 11.6 8.4 3.0 3 5.4 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hungry Lions down, Venda FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hungry Lions at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Venda FC away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Hungry Lions, 0.73 for Venda FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HUN 3–1 VEN · HUN 2–1 VEN · VEN 1–3 HUN · VEN 0–0 HUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 28 Aug

HUNGRY LIONS

DLWDWW0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

VENDA FC

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	7	+7	17
2	Cape Town City	8	+6	17
3	Casric Stars	8	+3	16
4	Upington City	8	+3	14
5	Hope FC	8	+1	14
6	Hungry Lions	7	+5	12
7	Highbury	8	+1	12
8	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
9	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
10	Leicesterfield	7	−1	10
11	University of Pretoria	7	−1	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	8	−1	8
13	NWU FC	7	−2	7
14	Orbit College	8	−6	3
15	The Bees	8	−8	3
16	Venda FC	7	−9	1