Hungry Lions v Upington City prediction · 1st Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hungry LionsDrawUpington City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Hungry Lions 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hungry Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hungry Lions 47%, draw 28%, Upington City 24%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Hungry Lions v Upington CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Hungry Lions win47%

Draw28%

Upington City win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hungry Lions

Upington City

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

Last match: 23 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hungry Lions	8	+6	15
6	Upington City	8	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hungry lions winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Hungry Lions a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hungry Lions v Upington City~~1.35 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hungry Lions win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Upington City win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Hungry Lions or draw	76%	–	–
Hungry Lions clean sheet	41%	–	–
Upington City clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 11.1 9.2 4.2 1 14.1 13.0 5.6 2 9.7 8.5 3.8 3 4.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hungry Lions down, Upington City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 1st Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hungry Lions at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Upington City away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Hungry Lions, 0.89 for Upington City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HUN 0–0 UPI · UPI 0–1 HUN · UPI 0–1 HUN · HUN 1–1 UPI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

HUNGRY LIONS

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

UPINGTON CITY

LWDLWW0–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	8	+8	20
2	Cape Town City	8	+6	17
3	Casric Stars	8	+3	16
4	Hungry Lions	8	+6	15
5	Lerumo Lions	8	+5	14
6	Upington City	8	+3	14
7	Hope FC	8	+1	14
8	Highbury	8	+1	12
9	Gomora United FC	8	−1	11
10	NWU FC	8	−1	10
11	Leicesterfield	8	−4	10
12	Midlands Wanderers	8	−1	8
13	University of Pretoria	8	−2	8
14	Orbit College	8	−6	3
15	The Bees	8	−8	3
16	Venda FC	8	−10	1