Hope FC v The Bees prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Hope FC 1–0 The Bees HOPE FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hope FC win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.464

This prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 23 Oct 14:30), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as we last published it. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hope FC win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hope FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
1′KICK-OFF Hope FC v The Bees
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hope FC win 38%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hope FC win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Hope FC 0–0 The Bees
48′We said Hope FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–47–21
FTFULL TIME Hope FC 1–0 The Bees
FTHope FC 1–0 The Bees · Hope FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Hope FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hope FC 44%, draw 30%, The Bees 25%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Hope FC v The BeesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Hope FC win44%

Draw30%

The Bees win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hope FC

The Bees

1Days since last match1

Last match: 23 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Hope FC	7	0	11
15	The Bees	7	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hope fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Hope FC a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hope FC v The Bees~~1.22 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 3~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hope FC win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hope FC win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
The Bees win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Hope FC or draw	75%	–	–
Hope FC clean sheet	43%	–	–
The Bees clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 13.3 10.4 4.5 1 15.2 13.3 5.4 2 9.4 7.8 3.3 3 3.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hope FC down, The Bees across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,259 1st Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hope FC at home: 0.80 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). The Bees away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Hope FC, 0.84 for The Bees. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HOP 1–0 THE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 5 Sept

HOPE FC

WLWDDW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

THE BEES

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	7	+7	17
2	Cape Town City	8	+6	17
3	Casric Stars	8	+3	16
4	Upington City	8	+3	14
5	Hungry Lions	7	+5	12
6	Highbury	8	+1	12
7	Lerumo Lions	7	+2	11
8	Gomora United FC	7	0	11
9	Hope FC	7	0	11
10	Leicesterfield	7	−1	10
11	University of Pretoria	7	−1	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	8	−1	8
13	NWU FC	7	−2	7
14	Orbit College	8	−6	3
15	The Bees	7	−7	3
16	Venda FC	7	−9	1