Highbury v Lerumo Lions prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Highbury 1–2 Lerumo Lions HIGHBURY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Highbury win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Highbury are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Highbury 42%, draw 30%, Lerumo Lions 27%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Highbury v Lerumo LionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Highbury win42%

Draw30%

Lerumo Lions win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Highbury

Lerumo Lions

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Highbury	6	+2	11
10	Lerumo Lions	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · highbury winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Highbury a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Highbury v Lerumo Lions~~1.20 – 0.90

~~Form · 1st Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Highbury win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Highbury win	42%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Lerumo Lions win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Highbury or draw	73%	–	–
Highbury clean sheet	41%	–	–
Lerumo Lions clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 12.9 10.6 5.0 1 14.3 13.6 5.9 2 8.8 7.8 3.5 3 3.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Highbury down, Lerumo Lions across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,247 1st Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.1% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Highbury at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lerumo Lions away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Highbury, 0.90 for Lerumo Lions. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LER 0–1 HIG · HIG 1–2 LER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1st Division this season · since 21 Aug

HIGHBURY

WWWLDD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

LERUMO LIONS

DWWLLD1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	6	+5	14
2	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
3	Cape Town City	6	+4	11
4	Highbury	6	+2	11
5	Gomora United FC	6	+1	11
6	Leicesterfield	6	0	10
7	Hope FC	6	0	10
8	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
9	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8
10	Lerumo Lions	6	+1	8
11	Upington City	6	0	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	6	0	7
13	NWU FC	6	−3	4
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3
15	The Bees	6	−6	3
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1