Gomora United FC v Upington City prediction · 1st Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Gomora United FC 2–1 Upington City GOMORA UNITED FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gomora United FC win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.544

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gomora United FC win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gomora United FC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
1′KICK-OFF Gomora United FC v Upington City
30′Much as we predicted: Gomora United FC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–37–28
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gomora United FC win 31%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Gomora United FC win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Draw 29%)
45′HALF-TIME Gomora United FC 0–0 Upington City
46′SECOND HALF Gomora United FC 0–0 Upington City
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Gomora United FC 1–0 Upington City
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gomora United FC 1–1 Upington City
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Gomora United FC 2–1 Upington City
FTFULL TIME Gomora United FC 2–1 Upington City
FTGomora United FC 2–1 Upington City · Gomora United FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gomora United FC win40%

Draw29%

Upington City win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gomora United FC

Upington City

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Upington City	5	+1	8
11	Gomora United FC	5	0	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gomora united fc winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Gomora United FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gomora united fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gomora United FC win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	29%	32%	−2
Upington City win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	44%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	62%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	18%	+1
Gomora United FC or draw	69%	70%	−1
Gomora United FC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Upington City clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.0 10.4 5.6 1 12.3 13.6 6.8 2.4 2 7.8 8.0 4.2 3 3.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gomora United FC down, Upington City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,245 1st Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.9% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gomora United FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Upington City away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Gomora United FC, 1.04 for Upington City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GOM 1–1 UPI · UPI 1–0 GOM

Form · last six in 1st Division

GOMORA UNITED FC

LDWWLD1–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 0–0

UPINGTON CITY

DDWLWD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Magesi	6	+5	14
2	Casric Stars	6	+2	12
3	Highbury	6	+2	11
4	Leicesterfield	6	0	10
5	Hope FC	6	0	10
6	Hungry Lions	6	+3	9
7	Cape Town City	5	+2	8
8	Upington City	5	+1	8
9	University of Pretoria	6	+1	8
10	Lerumo Lions	6	+1	8
11	Gomora United FC	5	0	8
12	Midlands Wanderers	6	0	7
13	NWU FC	6	−3	4
14	Orbit College	6	−3	3
15	The Bees	5	−4	3
16	Venda FC	6	−7	1