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Model 1.2

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Casric Stars v Highbury

Casric Stars
1–1Full time
Highbury

1st Division · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02
Casric Stars 1–1 Highbury CASRIC STARS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Casric Stars win50%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.818
The market’s Brier score0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Casric Stars win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Casric Stars was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Casric Stars v Highbury
  4. 7′We published Casric Stars at 50%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Casric Stars 1–0 Highbury
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Casric Stars win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  8. 33′We published Casric Stars at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  9. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Casric Stars win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Casric Stars 1–1 Highbury
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Casric Stars 1–1 Highbury
  12. 47′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–44–19
  13. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Casric Stars 1–1 Highbury
  14. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Casric Stars win: 50% at kick-off, 37% now
  15. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Casric Stars win 81%)
  16. 53′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
  17. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Casric Stars win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  18. 61′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
  19. 62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Casric Stars
  20. 62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Highbury
  21. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Casric Stars 1–1 Highbury
  22. 69′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
  23. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Casric Stars win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  24. 74′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
  25. 80′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–8
  26. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Casric Stars win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  27. 84′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–87–5
  28. 90′We said Casric Stars at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  29. FTFULL TIME Casric Stars 1–1 Highbury
  30. FTCasric Stars 1–1 Highbury · Casric Stars win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Casric Stars are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Casric Stars 50%, draw 28%, Highbury 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Casric Stars v HighburyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Casric Stars win50%
Draw28%
Highbury win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Casric Stars

Highbury

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

Last match: 16 Oct · 1st Division (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Casric Stars7+315
7Highbury7+111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · casric stars winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
50% The market48%
Us50%
Market48%

We make Casric Stars a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Casric Stars v Highbury1.41 – 0.83
Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 28 AugW4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 15 v 112 v 7
The market · Casric Stars win48% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 14:13
Our probability · Casric Stars win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Casric Stars win50%48%+2
Draw28%30%−2
Highbury win22%23%−1
Over 2.5 goals39%40%−1
Both teams to score43%44%−1
Over 1.5 goals66%65%+1
Over 3.5 goals19%21%−2
Casric Stars or draw78%77%+1
Casric Stars clean sheet44%––
Highbury clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%
0123450 11.2 8.5 3.7 1 14.7 12.7 5.1 2 10.6 8.7 3.6 3 5.0 4.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Casric Stars down, Highbury across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored0 of 4
Last meetingsCAS 3–0 HIG · HIG 1–0 CAS · HIG 0–1 CAS · CAS 1–0 HIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st Division this season · since 28 Aug

CASRIC STARS

LWWWLW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

HIGHBURY

WWLDDL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Magesi7+717
2Casric Stars7+315
3Cape Town City7+514
4Hungry Lions7+512
5Upington City7+211
6Lerumo Lions7+211
7Highbury7+111
8Gomora United FC7011
9Hope FC7011
10Leicesterfield7−110
11Midlands Wanderers708
12University of Pretoria7−18
13NWU FC7−27
14Orbit College7−53
15The Bees7−73
16Venda FC7−91

The competition's standings before kick-off.