Triglav v Nafta
TriglavNaftaCup · FRI 23 OCT · Stanko Mlakar Stadium
Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Triglav won 4–2 on penalties.
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Triglav win at 45%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Triglav was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
- 1′KICK-OFF Triglav v Nafta
- 45′HALF-TIME Triglav 0–0 Nafta
- 45′SECOND HALF Triglav 0–0 Nafta
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Triglav win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
- 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Triglav win 37%)
- 53′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–24
- 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–44–23
- 61′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–21
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Triglav win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
- 69′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
- 75′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–14
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Triglav win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 80′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
- 80′We published Triglav at 45%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
- 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Triglav 1–0 Nafta
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Triglav win: 45% at kick-off, 89% now
- 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Triglav win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 75%)
- 81′We published Triglav at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 81′Triglav find the net on 81′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 83′A goal for Nafta on 83′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–81–8
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Triglav 1–1 Nafta
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Triglav win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
- 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Triglav win 91%)
- 84′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
- 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 48%. 1–1 · 30–48–22
- 90′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 30–48–22
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Triglav win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 91′We said Triglav at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- 144′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 97%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
- FTFULL TIME Triglav 1–1 Nafta
- FTTriglav 1–1 Nafta after 90 minutes, as graded · Triglav win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Triglav are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Triglav 45%, draw 26%, Nafta 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Triglav win45%Nafta win29%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:30
RoundRound of 32
VenueStanko Mlakar Stadium
Match timeline
All events
TriglavMINNaftaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Triglav
Nafta
Last match: 16 Oct · 2. SNL
Last match: 17 Oct · 1. SNL
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Triglav a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Triglav win | 45% | 34% | +11 |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | −2 |
| Nafta win | 29% | 38% | −9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 28% | +3 |
| Triglav or draw | 71% | 62% | +9 |
| Triglav clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Nafta clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season
TRIGLAV
No matches in our record yet.
NAFTA
No matches in our record yet.