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Model 1.2

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Brežice v Aluminij

Brežice
4–2After extra time
Aluminij

Cup · FRI 23 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 23 Oct 20:01
Brežice 2–2 Aluminij ALUMINIJ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Aluminij win68%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.134
The market’s Brier score1.254

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 4–2 after extra time.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay32 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aluminij win at 68%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Aluminij was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 13–19–68
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Brežice v Aluminij
  4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
  5. 38′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 14–30–56
  6. 41′🟥 RED CARD · 41' Aluminij
  7. 42′A red card for Aluminij on 41′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 14–32–54
  8. 42′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 14–32–54
  9. 45′Brežice score on 120′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 77–15–7
  10. 45′Brežice have ten men and Aluminij nine after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–2 · 77–15–7
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Brežice 0–0 Aluminij
  12. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 7% now
  13. 46′A goal for Brežice on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 48–30–22
  14. 46′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 3–2 · 48–30–22
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Brežice 0–0 Aluminij
  16. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 52% now
  17. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Aluminij win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Draw 97%)
  18. 46′⚽ GOAL · 90+16' Brežice 3–2 Aluminij
  19. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 22% now
  20. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Brežice win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Aluminij win 52%)
  21. 51′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 14–37–49
  22. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 48% now
  23. 54′Aluminij find the net on 53′. 0–0 · 13–39–47
  24. 54′We published Aluminij at 68%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–1 · 2–11–87
  25. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Brežice 0–1 Aluminij
  26. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 87% now
  27. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 14–33–53 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  28. 58′A goal for Aluminij on 57′. 0–1 · 2–11–87
  29. 59′We published Aluminij at 68%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  30. 59′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  31. 59′⚽ GOAL · 57' Brežice 0–2 Aluminij
  32. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
  33. 72′Brežice find the net on 71′. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  34. 77′We published Aluminij at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  35. 81′We published Aluminij at 68%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  36. 81′Brežice score on 81′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  37. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Brežice 1–2 Aluminij
  38. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 94% now
  39. 82′Brežice find the net on 82′. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–78–17
  40. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Brežice 2–2 Aluminij
  41. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 17% now
  42. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Aluminij win 94%)
  43. 83′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 5–80–15
  44. 83′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 5–80–15
  45. 84′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 5–82–13
  46. 89′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 3–89–8
  47. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Aluminij win: 68% at kick-off, 8% now
  48. 90′Red cards for both sides: Brežice down to ten, Aluminij to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 3–91–7
  49. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Brežice
  50. 93′We said Aluminij at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 1–95–4
  51. 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 93' Brežice
  52. 94′🟥 RED CARD · 99' Aluminij
  53. 105′A goal for Brežice on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 73–23–5
  54. 105′Red cards for both sides: Brežice down to ten, Aluminij to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–2 · 73–23–5
  55. 105′Brežice score on 97′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 95–4–1
  56. 105′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Brežice likeliest at 95%. 4–2 · 95–4–1
  57. 105′⚽ GOAL · 97' Brežice 4–2 Aluminij
  58. 122′Brežice score on 120′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  59. 122′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  60. 122′⚽ GOAL · 120+1' Brežice 4–2 Aluminij
  61. FTFULL TIME Brežice 3–2 Aluminij
  62. FTBrežice 2–2 Aluminij after 90 minutes, as graded · Aluminij win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aluminij are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brežice 12%, draw 19%, Aluminij 68%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Brežice v AluminijBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Brežice win12%
Draw19%
Aluminij win68%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brežice

Aluminij

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 16 Oct · 1. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aluminij winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
68% The market74%
Us68%
Market74%

We make Aluminij a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Brežice v Aluminij0.82 – 2.19
The market · Aluminij win74% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:50
Our probability · Aluminij win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brežice win12%9%+3
Draw19%17%+2
Aluminij win68%74%−6
Over 2.5 goals58%61%−3
Both teams to score50%47%+3
Over 1.5 goals81%80%+1
Over 3.5 goals36%40%−4
Brežice or draw32%26%+6
Brežice clean sheet11%––
Aluminij clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.8%
0123450 5.2 10.5 11.8 8.6 4.7 2.11 3.8 9.2 9.7 7.1 3.9 2 3.6 4.0 2.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Brežice down, Aluminij across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

BREŽICE

No matches in our record yet.

ALUMINIJ

No matches in our record yet.