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Model 1.2

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Bistrica v Bilje

Bistrica
4–3Full time
Bilje

Cup · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32
Bistrica 4–3 Bilje BISTRICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bistrica win60%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.244
The market’s Brier score0.439

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bistrica win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bistrica was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bistrica v Bilje
  4. 3′Bistrica find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Bistrica 1–0 Bilje
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Bistrica win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
  7. 4′We published Bistrica at 60%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  8. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Bistrica 1–1 Bilje
  9. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Bistrica win: 60% at kick-off, 56% now
  10. 19′A goal for Bilje on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 56–25–19
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Bistrica 2–1 Bilje
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Bistrica win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
  13. 33′Bistrica score on 32′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–14–5
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Bistrica 2–1 Bilje
  15. 46′HALF-TIME Bistrica 2–1 Bilje
  16. 66′We published Bistrica at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  17. 70′We published Bistrica at 60%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–1–0
  18. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Bistrica 3–1 Bilje
  19. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Bistrica win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
  20. 71′Bistrica find the net on 71′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  21. 73′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  22. 77′We published Bistrica at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  23. 77′A goal for Bistrica on 77′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  24. 77′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bistrica 4–1 Bilje
  26. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Bistrica win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  27. 81′6 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  28. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Bistrica 4–2 Bilje
  29. 82′Bilje score on 81′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  30. 84′We published Bistrica at 60%. Our model now makes it 94%. 4–3 · 94–6–0
  31. 84′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 94–6–0
  32. 84′Bilje find the net on 84′. 4–3. 4–3 · 94–6–0
  33. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Bistrica 4–3 Bilje
  34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Bistrica win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
  35. 93′Full time, 4–3. We called Bistrica at 60% — that one lands. 4–3 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Bistrica 4–3 Bilje
  37. FTBistrica 4–3 Bilje · Bistrica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bistrica are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bistrica 60%, draw 22%, Bilje 18%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Bistrica v BiljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bistrica win60%
Draw22%
Bilje win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bistrica

Bilje

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bistrica winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
60% The market46%
Us60%
Market46%

We make Bistrica a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bistrica v Bilje2.08 – 1.07
The market · Bistrica win46% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 13:49
Our probability · Bistrica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bistrica win60%46%+14
Draw22%26%−4
Bilje win18%28%−10
Over 2.5 goals61%56%+5
Both teams to score57%59%−2
Over 1.5 goals82%77%+5
Over 3.5 goals39%35%+4
Bistrica or draw82%72%+10
Bistrica clean sheet35%––
Bilje clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%
0123450 5.2 4.1 2.5 1 8.4 10.1 5.0 2 9.2 9.6 5.1 3 6.4 6.7 3.6 4 3.4 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bistrica down, Bilje across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.89
Over 2.56 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsBIL 1–4 BIS · BIS 3–0 BIL · BIL 0–0 BIS · BIL 0–0 BIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

BISTRICA

No matches in our record yet.

BILJE

No matches in our record yet.