Žiri v Svoboda prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Žiri 3–0 Svoboda ŽIRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Žiri win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Žiri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Žiri 48%, draw 26%, Svoboda 27%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Žiri v SvobodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Žiri win48%

Draw26%

Svoboda win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Žiri

Svoboda

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Žiri	9	−5	7
14	Svoboda	9	−15	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · žiri winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Žiri a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Žiri v Svoboda~~1.68 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Žiri win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Svoboda win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Žiri or draw	73%	–	–
Žiri clean sheet	31%	–	–
Svoboda clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 6.0 4.1 1 8.7 12.0 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.5 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Žiri down, Svoboda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 377 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Žiri at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Svoboda away: 0.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Žiri, 1.19 for Svoboda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ZIR 2–0 SVO · SVO 0–0 ZIR · ZIR 0–1 SVO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 4 Sept

ŽIRI

DLDDLL0–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

SVOBODA

LLLLLW1–4 · 3–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	9	+34	27
2	Dob	9	+15	20
3	Zidgrad Idrija	9	+4	19
4	Šencur	9	+6	16
5	Litija	9	+8	15
6	Tolmin	9	+6	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	9	−6	13
8	Škofja Loka	9	−3	12
9	Adria	9	+2	10
10	Žiri	9	−5	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	9	−9	7
12	Vipava	9	−27	6
13	Šobec Lesce	9	−10	4
14	Svoboda	9	−15	4