Zidgrad Idrija v Žiri prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Zidgrad Idrija 1–0 Žiri ZIDGRAD IDRIJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zidgrad Idrija win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.337

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zidgrad Idrija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zidgrad Idrija 53%, draw 24%, Žiri 24%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Zidgrad Idrija v ŽiriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zidgrad Idrija win53%

Draw24%

Žiri win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zidgrad Idrija

Žiri

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Zidgrad Idrija	10	+6	22
10	Žiri	10	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zidgrad idrija winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:12 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Zidgrad Idrija a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zidgrad Idrija v Žiri~~1.90 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 10~~3 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zidgrad Idrija win

Published at 51%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zidgrad Idrija win	53%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Žiri win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija or draw	76%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija clean sheet	31%	–	–
Žiri clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.5 4.9 3.4 1 8.0 10.8 6.0 2.5 2 8.0 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 5.1 5.9 3.5 4 2.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zidgrad Idrija down, Žiri across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 384 3. SNL - West matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zidgrad Idrija at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Žiri away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Zidgrad Idrija, 1.20 for Žiri. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZID 0–0 ZIR · ZIR 2–1 ZID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept

ZIDGRAD IDRIJA

WWLLWW2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 3–1

ŽIRI

LDDLLW2–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	10	+44	30
2	Dob	10	+17	23
3	Zidgrad Idrija	10	+6	22
4	Litija	10	+15	18
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
8	Škofja Loka	10	−5	12
9	Adria	10	0	10
10	Žiri	10	−2	10
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	−9	8
12	Šobec Lesce	10	−9	7
13	Vipava	10	−27	7
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4