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Zidgrad Idrija v Tolmin

Zidgrad Idrija

2–0Full time

Tolmin

3. SNL - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Zidgrad Idrija 2–0 Tolmin TOLMIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tolmin win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.932

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zidgrad Idrija win23%

Draw23%

Tolmin win54%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tolmin winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Tolmin a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zidgrad Idrija win	23%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Tolmin win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija or draw	46%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija clean sheet	14%	–	–
Tolmin clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.8 6.9 7.6 5.1 2.7 1 4.2 10.2 9.2 6.2 3.2 2 3.1 5.9 5.8 3.9 3 2.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zidgrad Idrija down, Tolmin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 370 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zidgrad Idrija at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tolmin away: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Zidgrad Idrija, 2.03 for Tolmin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOL 3–0 ZID · ZID 1–0 TOL

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West

ZIDGRAD IDRIJA

WDWWLL2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–4

TOLMIN

WDWLWW1–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	8	+31	24
2	Dob	8	+15	19
3	Zidgrad Idrija	8	+2	16
4	Tolmin	8	+8	15
5	Šencur	8	+6	15
6	Litija	8	+8	14
7	Škofja Loka	8	−2	12
8	Rudar Trbovlje	8	−7	10
9	Adria	8	−4	7
10	Žiri	8	−4	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	8	−6	7
12	Vipava	8	−21	6
13	Šobec Lesce	8	−10	3
14	Svoboda	8	−16	1