Tolmin v Šobec Lesce prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Tolmin 0–1 Šobec Lesce TOLMIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tolmin win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.167

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tolmin are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tolmin 62%, draw 23%, Šobec Lesce 15%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Tolmin v Šobec LesceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tolmin win62%

Draw23%

Šobec Lesce win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tolmin

Šobec Lesce

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tolmin	9	+6	15
13	Šobec Lesce	9	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tolmin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Tolmin a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tolmin v Šobec Lesce~~1.96 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 4~~6 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tolmin win	62%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Šobec Lesce win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Tolmin or draw	85%	–	–
Tolmin clean sheet	44%	–	–
Šobec Lesce clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.3 4.4 2.2 1 11.3 10.6 4.1 2 11.6 9.4 3.9 3 7.6 6.1 2.6 4 3.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tolmin down, Šobec Lesce across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 377 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tolmin at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Šobec Lesce away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Tolmin, 0.83 for Šobec Lesce. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOL 1–0 SOB · SOB 3–0 TOL · TOL 6–0 SOB · SOB 1–5 TOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 5 Sept

TOLMIN

DWLWWL2–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

ŠOBEC LESCE

LDLLLD1–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	9	+34	27
2	Dob	9	+15	20
3	Zidgrad Idrija	9	+4	19
4	Šencur	9	+6	16
5	Litija	9	+8	15
6	Tolmin	9	+6	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	9	−6	13
8	Škofja Loka	9	−3	12
9	Adria	9	+2	10
10	Žiri	9	−5	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	9	−9	7
12	Vipava	9	−27	6
13	Šobec Lesce	9	−10	4
14	Svoboda	9	−15	4