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Svoboda v Škofja Loka

Svoboda

1–0Full time

Škofja Loka

3. SNL - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Svoboda 1–0 Škofja Loka ŠKOFJA LOKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Škofja Loka win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Svoboda win31%

Draw24%

Škofja Loka win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · škofja loka winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Škofja Loka a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Svoboda win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Škofja Loka win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Svoboda or draw	55%	–	–
Svoboda clean sheet	18%	–	–
Škofja Loka clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 6.4 6.3 3.8 1 5.1 10.9 8.8 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.2 6.2 3.7 3 2.1 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Svoboda down, Škofja Loka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 370 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Svoboda at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Škofja Loka away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Svoboda, 1.79 for Škofja Loka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SVO 2–1 SKO · SKO 1–4 SVO · SVO 4–2 SKO

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West

SVOBODA

LLLLLL0–3 · 1–4 · 3–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2

ŠKOFJA LOKA

DDWDLW1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	8	+31	24
2	Dob	8	+15	19
3	Zidgrad Idrija	8	+2	16
4	Tolmin	8	+8	15
5	Šencur	8	+6	15
6	Litija	8	+8	14
7	Škofja Loka	8	−2	12
8	Rudar Trbovlje	8	−7	10
9	Adria	8	−4	7
10	Žiri	8	−4	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	8	−6	7
12	Vipava	8	−21	6
13	Šobec Lesce	8	−10	3
14	Svoboda	8	−16	1