Svoboda v Izola prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SvobodaDrawIzola

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Izola 80%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Izola are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Svoboda 8%, draw 11%, Izola 80%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Svoboda v IzolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Svoboda win8%

Draw11%

Izola win80%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Svoboda

Izola

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · izola winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Izola an 80% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–3.6, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Svoboda v Izola~~1.02 – 3.63

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 30~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Svoboda win	8%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Izola win	80%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	65%	–	–
Svoboda or draw	20%	–	–
Svoboda clean sheet	4%	–	–
Izola clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 7.0%

0123450 3.8 6.4 7.0 6.1 4.61 4.6 6.6 7.0 5.9 4.22 2.3 3.5 3.6 3.0 2.13 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Svoboda down, Izola across0–5 goals a side shown (81.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 3. SNL - West matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Svoboda at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Izola away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Svoboda, 3.63 for Izola. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SVO 2–2 IZO · IZO 2–1 SVO · IZO 2–1 SVO · IZO 3–0 SVO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept

SVOBODA

LLLLWL3–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

IZOLA

WWWWWW5–2 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 11–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	10	+44	30
2	Dob	10	+17	23
3	Zidgrad Idrija	10	+6	22
4	Litija	10	+15	18
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
8	Škofja Loka	10	−5	12
9	Adria	10	0	10
10	Žiri	10	−2	10
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	−9	8
12	Šobec Lesce	10	−9	7
13	Vipava	10	−27	7
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4