Škofja Loka v Zidgrad Idrija prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Škofja Loka 1–3 Zidgrad Idrija ŠKOFJA LOKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Škofja Loka win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Škofja Loka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Škofja Loka 48%, draw 24%, Zidgrad Idrija 28%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Škofja Loka v Zidgrad IdrijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Škofja Loka win48%

Draw24%

Zidgrad Idrija win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Škofja Loka

Zidgrad Idrija

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Zidgrad Idrija	9	+4	19
8	Škofja Loka	9	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · škofja loka winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Škofja Loka a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Škofja Loka v Zidgrad Idrija~~1.89 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 19~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Škofja Loka win	48%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Škofja Loka or draw	72%	–	–
Škofja Loka clean sheet	26%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 4.6 3.7 1 6.5 10.5 6.7 3.1 2 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 4.2 5.7 3.9 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Škofja Loka down, Zidgrad Idrija across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 377 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Škofja Loka at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Zidgrad Idrija away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Škofja Loka, 1.39 for Zidgrad Idrija. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZID 0–1 SKO · SKO 2–1 ZID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 5 Sept

ŠKOFJA LOKA

DWDLWL2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 3–1 · 0–1

ZIDGRAD IDRIJA

DWWLLW0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	9	+34	27
2	Dob	9	+15	20
3	Zidgrad Idrija	9	+4	19
4	Šencur	9	+6	16
5	Litija	9	+8	15
6	Tolmin	9	+6	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	9	−6	13
8	Škofja Loka	9	−3	12
9	Adria	9	+2	10
10	Žiri	9	−5	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	9	−9	7
12	Vipava	9	−27	6
13	Šobec Lesce	9	−10	4
14	Svoboda	9	−15	4