Rudar Trbovlje v Svoboda prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rudar TrbovljeDrawSvoboda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rudar Trbovlje 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rudar Trbovlje are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rudar Trbovlje 66%, draw 18%, Svoboda 16%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Rudar Trbovlje v SvobodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rudar Trbovlje win66%

Draw18%

Svoboda win16%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rudar Trbovlje

Svoboda

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - West

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rudar trbovlje winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Rudar Trbovlje a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rudar Trbovlje v Svoboda~~2.60 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 4~~7 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rudar Trbovlje win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Svoboda win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Rudar Trbovlje or draw	84%	–	–
Rudar Trbovlje clean sheet	30%	–	–
Svoboda clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.9 2.4 1 5.5 7.5 4.3 2 7.4 8.7 5.3 2.2 3 6.2 7.4 4.5 4 4.1 4.8 2.9 5 2.2 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Rudar Trbovlje down, Svoboda across0–5 goals a side shown (94.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 3. SNL - West matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rudar Trbovlje at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Svoboda away: 0.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Rudar Trbovlje, 1.23 for Svoboda. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RUD 0–1 SVO · SVO 2–2 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept

RUDAR TRBOVLJE

LLLLWL1–3 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–11

SVOBODA

LLLLWL3–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	10	+44	30
2	Dob	10	+17	23
3	Zidgrad Idrija	10	+6	22
4	Litija	10	+15	18
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
8	Škofja Loka	10	−5	12
9	Adria	10	0	10
10	Žiri	10	−2	10
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	−9	8
12	Šobec Lesce	10	−9	7
13	Vipava	10	−27	7
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4