Litija v Tolmin prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LitijaDrawTolmin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Litija 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Litija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Litija 55%, draw 23%, Tolmin 22%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Litija v TolminBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Litija win55%

Draw23%

Tolmin win22%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Litija

Tolmin

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Litija	10	+15	18
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · litija winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Litija a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Litija v Tolmin~~1.96 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Litija win	55%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Tolmin win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Litija or draw	78%	–	–
Litija clean sheet	33%	–	–
Tolmin clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.6 4.8 3.1 1 8.5 10.5 5.6 2.2 2 8.6 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 5.6 6.1 3.4 4 2.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Litija down, Tolmin across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 3. SNL - West matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Litija at home: 2.40 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Tolmin away: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Litija, 1.14 for Tolmin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept

LITIJA

DWWWDW1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 7–0

TOLMIN

WLWWLL4–2 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	10	+44	30
2	Dob	10	+17	23
3	Zidgrad Idrija	10	+6	22
4	Litija	10	+15	18
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
8	Škofja Loka	10	−5	12
9	Adria	10	0	10
10	Žiri	10	−2	10
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	−9	8
12	Šobec Lesce	10	−9	7
13	Vipava	10	−27	7
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4