Litija v Šencur prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Litija 7–0 Šencur LITIJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Litija win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Litija are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Litija 41%, draw 27%, Šencur 31%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Litija v ŠencurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Litija win41%

Draw27%

Šencur win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Litija

Šencur

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Šencur	9	+6	16
5	Litija	9	+8	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · litija winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Litija a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Litija v Šencur~~1.46 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 16~~5 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Litija win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Šencur win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Litija or draw	69%	–	–
Litija clean sheet	30%	–	–
Šencur clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 7.6 5.2 2.2 1 9.0 12.7 7.2 3.1 2 7.1 8.5 5.2 2.2 3 3.5 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Litija down, Šencur across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 377 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Litija at home: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Šencur away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Litija, 1.24 for Šencur. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 4 Sept

LITIJA

DDWWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1

ŠENCUR

DLWWWD0–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	9	+34	27
2	Dob	9	+15	20
3	Zidgrad Idrija	9	+4	19
4	Šencur	9	+6	16
5	Litija	9	+8	15
6	Tolmin	9	+6	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	9	−6	13
8	Škofja Loka	9	−3	12
9	Adria	9	+2	10
10	Žiri	9	−5	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	9	−9	7
12	Vipava	9	−27	6
13	Šobec Lesce	9	−10	4
14	Svoboda	9	−15	4