Izola v Zidgrad Idrija prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IzolaDrawZidgrad Idrija

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Izola 85%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Izola are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Izola 85%, draw 9%, Zidgrad Idrija 6%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Izola v Zidgrad IdrijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Izola win85%

Draw9%

Zidgrad Idrija win6%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundWest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Izola

Zidgrad Idrija

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - West

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. SNL - West

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · izola winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

85% The market–

Us85%

We make Izola an 85% chance to win. The model expects 4.0–1.0, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Izola v Zidgrad Idrija~~3.95 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 25~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Izola win	85%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	71%	–	–
Izola or draw	94%	–	–
Izola clean sheet	37%	–	–
Zidgrad Idrija clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.0%

0123450 1 3.0 3.5 2 5.8 5.8 2.9 3 7.0 6.9 3.5 4 6.5 6.4 3.3 5 5.1 5.0 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Izola down, Zidgrad Idrija across0–5 goals a side shown (78.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 3. SNL - West matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Izola at home: 6.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zidgrad Idrija away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.95 goals for Izola, 1.02 for Zidgrad Idrija. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZID 1–3 IZO · IZO 2–1 ZID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept

IZOLA

WWWWWW5–2 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 11–1

ZIDGRAD IDRIJA

WLLWWW3–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	10	+44	30
2	Zidgrad Idrija	11	+7	25
3	Dob	10	+17	23
4	Litija	10	+15	18
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
8	Škofja Loka	10	−5	12
9	Adria	10	0	10
10	Žiri	11	−3	10
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	−9	8
12	Šobec Lesce	10	−9	7
13	Vipava	10	−27	7
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4