Dob v Adria prediction · 3. SNL - West

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Dob 4–2 Adria DOB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dob win~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.145

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dob are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dob 69%, draw 17%, Adria 14%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Dob v AdriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dob win69%

Draw17%

Adria win14%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dob

Adria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dob	9	+15	20
9	Adria	9	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dob winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make Dob a 69% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dob v Adria~~2.75 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dob win	69%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Adria win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Dob or draw	86%	–	–
Dob clean sheet	33%	–	–
Adria clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 3.1 2.1 1 5.5 7.2 3.8 2 7.7 8.4 4.8 3 6.8 7.4 4.2 4 4.6 5.0 2.8 5 2.7 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Dob down, Adria across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 377 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Dob at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Adria away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.75 goals for Dob, 1.14 for Adria. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 5 Sept

DOB

LWWWWD0–3 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

ADRIA

WLWLLW4–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	9	+34	27
2	Dob	9	+15	20
3	Zidgrad Idrija	9	+4	19
4	Šencur	9	+6	16
5	Litija	9	+8	15
6	Tolmin	9	+6	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	9	−6	13
8	Škofja Loka	9	−3	12
9	Adria	9	+2	10
10	Žiri	9	−5	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	9	−9	7
12	Vipava	9	−27	6
13	Šobec Lesce	9	−10	4
14	Svoboda	9	−15	4