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Adria v Vipava

Adria

7–1Full time

Vipava

3. SNL - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Adria 7–1 Vipava ADRIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Adria win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Adria win58%

Draw20%

Vipava win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adria winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Adria a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Adria win	58%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Vipava win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Adria or draw	78%	–	–
Adria clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vipava clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.4 2.9 2.4 1 5.2 8.3 5.3 2.5 2 6.6 8.6 5.9 2.8 3 5.1 6.7 4.6 2.2 4 3.0 4.0 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Adria down, Vipava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 370 3. SNL - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Adria at home: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vipava away: 1.33 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Adria, 1.40 for Vipava. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ADR 1–1 VIP

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West

ADRIA

LWLWLL1–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

VIPAVA

LLWLWL0–11 · 2–3 · 5–3 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	8	+31	24
2	Dob	8	+15	19
3	Zidgrad Idrija	8	+2	16
4	Tolmin	8	+8	15
5	Šencur	8	+6	15
6	Litija	8	+8	14
7	Škofja Loka	8	−2	12
8	Rudar Trbovlje	8	−7	10
9	Adria	8	−4	7
10	Žiri	8	−4	7
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	8	−6	7
12	Vipava	8	−21	6
13	Šobec Lesce	8	−10	3
14	Svoboda	8	−16	1