Adria v Šencur prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AdriaDrawŠencur

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Adria 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Adria just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Adria 39%, draw 22%, Šencur 38%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Adria v ŠencurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Adria win39%

Draw22%

Šencur win38%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:30

RoundWest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Adria

Šencur

11Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - West

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
9	Adria	10	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adria winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Adria a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Adria v Šencur~~1.86 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Adria win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Šencur win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Adria or draw	62%	–	–
Adria clean sheet	17%	–	–
Šencur clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.5 4.2 4.3 2.6 1 4.3 9.0 7.4 4.5 2.2 2 4.5 7.6 6.6 4.0 3 2.8 4.7 4.1 2.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Adria down, Šencur across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 384 3. SNL - West matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Adria at home: 2.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Šencur away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Adria, 1.85 for Šencur. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ADR 0–3 SEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - West this season · since 12 Sept

ADRIA

LWLLWL1–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 7–1 · 2–4

ŠENCUR

LWWWDL2–5 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 0–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izola	10	+44	30
2	Dob	10	+17	23
3	Zidgrad Idrija	10	+6	22
4	Litija	10	+15	18
5	Šencur	10	−1	16
6	Tolmin	10	+5	15
7	Rudar Trbovlje	10	−16	13
8	Škofja Loka	10	−5	12
9	Adria	10	0	10
10	Žiri	10	−2	10
11	IB 1975 Ljubljana	10	−9	8
12	Šobec Lesce	10	−9	7
13	Vipava	10	−27	7
14	Svoboda	10	−18	4