Šmartno v Šampion Celje prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ŠmartnoDrawŠampion Celje

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Šmartno 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Šmartno are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Šmartno 68%, draw 17%, Šampion Celje 15%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Šmartno v Šampion CeljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Šmartno win68%

Draw17%

Šampion Celje win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundEast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Šmartno

Šampion Celje

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - East

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Šmartno	10	+5	19
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · šmartno winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Šmartno a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Šmartno v Šampion Celje~~2.72 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 19 v 4~~4 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Šmartno win	68%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Šampion Celje win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Šmartno or draw	85%	–	–
Šmartno clean sheet	30%	–	–
Šampion Celje clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.4 2.5 1 5.5 6.8 4.0 2 7.3 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 6.4 7.4 4.5 4 4.3 5.0 3.0 5 2.4 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Šmartno down, Šampion Celje across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 3. SNL - East matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Šmartno at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Šampion Celje away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.72 goals for Šmartno, 1.21 for Šampion Celje. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 12 Sept

ŠMARTNO

LWWWLW1–7 · 8–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–5 · 4–3

ŠAMPION CELJE

LLLLLL3–4 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	10	+18	26
2	Fužinar	10	+10	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	+6	19
4	Šmartno	10	+5	19
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	10	+5	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Rače	10	+1	13
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	−1	11
11	Dobrovce	10	−12	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	10	−13	8
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4