Rače v Fužinar prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Rače 1–0 Fužinar FUŽINAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fužinar win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.657

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fužinar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rače 36%, draw 23%, Fužinar 41%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Rače v FužinarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rače win36%

Draw23%

Fužinar win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundEast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rače

Fužinar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Fužinar	9	+11	19
10	Rače	9	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fužinar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Fužinar a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rače v Fužinar~~1.61 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 19~~10 v 2

~~The market · Fužinar win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fužinar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rače win	36%	34%	+2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Fužinar win	41%	41%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	65%	68%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Rače or draw	59%	59%	0
Rače clean sheet	19%	–	–
Fužinar clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 6.0 5.3 3.1 1 5.6 10.2 8.2 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 7.8 6.5 3.7 3 2.6 4.2 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rače down, Fužinar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 322 3. SNL - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rače at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fužinar away: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Rače, 1.72 for Fužinar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FUZ 5–1 RAC · FUZ 5–0 RAC · RAC 0–0 FUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 5 Sept

RAČE

LLDWWD1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

FUŽINAR

LWWWDW3–5 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 4–3 · 4–4 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	9	+16	23
2	Fužinar	9	+11	19
3	Šmartno	9	+4	16
4	NK Ormoz	9	+4	16
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	9	+7	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Korotan Prevalje	9	+1	11
10	Rače	9	0	10
11	Dobrovce	9	−11	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	9	−15	5
14	Šampion Celje	9	−10	4