Odranci v Šmartno prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OdranciDrawŠmartno

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Odranci 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Odranci are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odranci 65%, draw 17%, Šmartno 18%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Odranci v ŠmartnoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Odranci win65%

Draw17%

Šmartno win18%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:15

RoundEast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odranci

Šmartno

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - East

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · odranci winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Odranci a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odranci v Šmartno~~2.82 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 19~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odranci win	65%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Šmartno win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Odranci or draw	82%	–	–
Odranci clean sheet	24%	–	–
Šmartno clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.0 1 4.0 5.9 4.2 2.1 2 5.6 7.8 5.6 2.8 3 5.1 7.2 5.2 2.6 4 3.6 5.1 3.7 5 2.1 2.9 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Odranci down, Šmartno across0–5 goals a side shown (92.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 3. SNL - East matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Odranci at home: 4.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Šmartno away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.82 goals for Odranci, 1.47 for Šmartno. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 12 Sept

ODRANCI

WDWDWW3–1 · 3–3 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

ŠMARTNO

LWWWLW1–7 · 8–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–5 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	10	+18	26
2	Fužinar	10	+10	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	+6	19
4	Šmartno	10	+5	19
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	10	+5	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Rače	10	+1	13
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	−1	11
11	Dobrovce	10	−12	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	10	−13	8
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4