NK Ormoz v Šampion Celje prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

NK Ormoz 2–0 Šampion Celje NK ORMOZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NK Ormoz win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.159

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Ormoz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Ormoz 67%, draw 17%, Šampion Celje 16%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on NK Ormoz v Šampion CeljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NK Ormoz win67%

Draw17%

Šampion Celje win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundEast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Ormoz

Šampion Celje

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	NK Ormoz	9	+4	16
14	Šampion Celje	9	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nk ormoz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make NK Ormoz a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Ormoz v Šampion Celje~~2.72 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 4~~4 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Ormoz win	67%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Šampion Celje win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
NK Ormoz or draw	84%	–	–
NK Ormoz clean sheet	30%	–	–
Šampion Celje clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.5 2.4 1 5.4 6.9 4.0 2 7.2 8.4 5.1 2.2 3 6.3 7.4 4.5 4 4.3 5.0 3.0 5 2.4 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Ormoz down, Šampion Celje across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 322 3. SNL - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

NK Ormoz at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Šampion Celje away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.72 goals for NK Ormoz, 1.23 for Šampion Celje. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 5 Sept

NK ORMOZ

LDWLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–4 · 4–3 · 0–3

ŠAMPION CELJE

WLLLLL4–0 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	9	+16	23
2	Fužinar	9	+11	19
3	Šmartno	9	+4	16
4	NK Ormoz	9	+4	16
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	9	+7	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Korotan Prevalje	9	+1	11
10	Rače	9	0	10
11	Dobrovce	9	−11	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	9	−15	5
14	Šampion Celje	9	−10	4