Ljutomer v Videm prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LjutomerDrawVidem

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Videm 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Videm are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ljutomer 34%, draw 21%, Videm 44%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Ljutomer v VidemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ljutomer win34%

Draw21%

Videm win44%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundEast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ljutomer

Videm

18Days since last match18

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - East

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Videm	10	−2	14
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · videm winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Videm a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ljutomer v Videm~~1.74 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ljutomer win	34%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Videm win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Ljutomer or draw	56%	–	–
Ljutomer clean sheet	14%	–	–
Videm clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.7 4.7 4.8 3.2 1 4.1 8.4 8.0 5.3 2.7 2 3.7 7.0 6.9 4.6 2.4 3 2.1 4.1 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ljutomer down, Videm across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 3. SNL - East matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ljutomer at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Videm away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Ljutomer, 2.02 for Videm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LJU 6–4 VID · VID 2–2 LJU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 11 Sept

LJUTOMER

DDLLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

VIDEM

WDDLWW2–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	10	+18	26
2	Fužinar	10	+10	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	+6	19
4	Šmartno	10	+5	19
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	10	+5	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Rače	10	+1	13
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	−1	11
11	Dobrovce	10	−12	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	10	−13	8
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4