Korotan Prevalje v Šampion Celje prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Korotan PrevaljeDrawŠampion Celje

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Korotan Prevalje 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Korotan Prevalje are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korotan Prevalje 60%, draw 21%, Šampion Celje 19%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Korotan Prevalje v Šampion CeljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Korotan Prevalje win60%

Draw21%

Šampion Celje win19%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundEast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korotan Prevalje

Šampion Celje

11Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - East

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	−1	11
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · korotan prevalje winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Korotan Prevalje a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korotan Prevalje v Šampion Celje~~2.09 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korotan Prevalje win	60%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Šampion Celje win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Korotan Prevalje or draw	81%	–	–
Korotan Prevalje clean sheet	34%	–	–
Šampion Celje clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.8 4.5 2.6 1 8.7 9.6 5.1 2 9.0 9.5 5.1 3 6.2 6.5 3.5 4 3.3 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korotan Prevalje down, Šampion Celje across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 3. SNL - East matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korotan Prevalje at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Šampion Celje away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Korotan Prevalje, 1.09 for Šampion Celje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOR 2–1 SAM · SAM 5–1 KOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 12 Sept

KOROTAN PREVALJE

LDWDLL0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–4 · 0–1 · 1–3

ŠAMPION CELJE

LLLLLL3–4 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	10	+18	26
2	Fužinar	10	+10	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	+6	19
4	Šmartno	10	+5	19
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	10	+5	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Rače	10	+1	13
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	−1	11
11	Dobrovce	10	−12	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	10	−13	8
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4