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Fužinar v Šmartno

Fužinar

5–1Full time

Šmartno

3. SNL - East · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Fužinar 5–1 Šmartno FUŽINAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fužinar win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.257

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fužinar win59%

Draw18%

Šmartno win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fužinar winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Fužinar a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fužinar win	59%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Šmartno win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	67%	–	–
Fužinar or draw	76%	–	–
Fužinar clean sheet	17%	–	–
Šmartno clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.0%

0123450 1 2.8 5.4 4.5 2.7 2 4.1 7.0 6.1 3.6 3 3.7 6.4 5.6 3.3 4 2.6 4.5 3.9 2.4 5 2.6 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Fužinar down, Šmartno across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 315 3. SNL - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.4% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fužinar at home: 3.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Šmartno away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.82 goals for Fužinar, 1.80 for Šmartno. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SMA 5–0 FUZ · FUZ 5–1 SMA

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East

FUŽINAR

WLWWWD5–1 · 3–5 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 4–3 · 4–4

ŠMARTNO

WWLWWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–7 · 8–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	8	+13	20
2	Šmartno	8	+8	16
3	Fužinar	8	+7	16
4	NK Ormoz	8	+7	16
5	Podvinci	9	−2	14
6	Hajdina	9	+1	13
7	Čarda Martjanci	8	+5	12
8	Korotan Prevalje	8	+2	11
9	Videm	9	−4	11
10	Rače	8	0	9
11	Ljutomer	9	−2	8
12	Dobrovce	8	−12	6
13	Šampion Celje	8	−8	4
14	Limbuš Pekre	8	−15	4