Dobrovce v Šmartno prediction · 3. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Dobrovce 3–4 Šmartno ŠMARTNO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Šmartno win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.308

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Šmartno are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dobrovce 25%, draw 20%, Šmartno 55%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Dobrovce v ŠmartnoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dobrovce win25%

Draw20%

Šmartno win55%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundEast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dobrovce

Šmartno

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. SNL - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Šmartno	9	+4	16
11	Dobrovce	9	−11	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · šmartno winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Šmartno a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dobrovce v Šmartno~~1.53 – 2.34

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 16~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dobrovce win	25%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Šmartno win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Dobrovce or draw	45%	–	–
Dobrovce clean sheet	11%	–	–
Šmartno clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.4%

0123450 2.6 4.8 5.7 4.4 2.6 1 3.1 7.8 8.4 6.4 3.8 2 2.6 5.7 6.4 4.9 2.9 3 3.0 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dobrovce down, Šmartno across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 322 3. SNL - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dobrovce at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Šmartno away: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Dobrovce, 2.34 for Šmartno. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SMA 0–1 DOB · DOB 0–1 SMA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 5 Sept

DOBROVCE

WLWLLW3–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 1–0

ŠMARTNO

WLWWWL2–1 · 1–7 · 8–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	9	+16	23
2	Fužinar	9	+11	19
3	Šmartno	9	+4	16
4	NK Ormoz	9	+4	16
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	9	+7	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Korotan Prevalje	9	+1	11
10	Rače	9	0	10
11	Dobrovce	9	−11	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	9	−15	5
14	Šampion Celje	9	−10	4